Speaking at a party function in Kolkata, on Thursday, Tripura's four-term chief minister Manik Sarkar identified BJP as the main competitor as he accused the party of trying to tie up with separatists forces in the state ahead of assembly elections in February.
Sarkar's worries are for real as he faces an aggressive BJP in the state. Perhaps, taking a cue from the Congress strategy in Gujarat, Sarkar landed at a Hindu religious gathering in the state capital a week ago. It sparked off a controversy among the hardline Left circles given party’s ideological mooring. But it was aimed at projecting an image that the Left party was not against Hindus who constitute the majority in the state.
A day before Sarkar visited the religious gathering, the BJP chief Amit Shah had appointed architect of party’s victory in neighbouring Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma, as election in-charge for Tripura. Sarma, who left the Congress to join the BJP, had been instrumental in ensuring the party's victory in Assam.
The BJP is currently holding rallies and carrying out local campaign to build up resentment against the Sarkar government. With a clean image, Sarkar is still a formidable foe. Dislodging him would require carpet bombing by a host of senior BJP leaders including UP CM Yogi Adityanath, who finds traction among the Nath caste in the state, to counter two-decade-old CPM government.
After registering victories in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, the BJP is slowly shifting its focus to other states where elections are due in the next a few months. Eight states will face assembly elections in 2018 of which four – Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Karnataka – will go to polls between February and May. Without wasting much time, Amit Shah had already appointed Sarma as election in-charge of Tripura and Union minister Kiren Rijiju in-charge of Nagaland on December 23.
Meghlaya, ruled by the Congress, is where a keen contest is awaited. In this Christian majority state, BJP had appointed Union minister Alphons Kannanthanam as election in-charge hoping he could send a message to the community. If this move will prove beneficial to the BJP is yet to be seen.
Several thousands of kilometers away, preparations are under-way for another pitched battle. BJP is currently holding a parivartan yatra across Karnataka to drum up support against the ruling Congress government. The saffron party is facing Chief Minister Siddaramaiah who is proving to be a tough competitor. The Congress CM had been using Kannada pride to keep BJP's nationalist sentiment at bay.
As elections are still six months away, in May, the BJP is likely to employ a mixture of development and Hindutva narrative in its campaign. Minister of State Anant Kumar Hegde's provocative speeches are interpreted as evoking the Hindutva sentiments which could help the party rise above the strong caste equations (read Lingayat) in the state. The BJP suffered strong opposition from caste leaders like Jignesh Mevani, Alkesh Thakor and Hardik Patel in Gujarat. This had come as eye-opener for the BJP strategists including Amit Shah, who agreed that these caste equations by way of election strategy have to be acknowledged.
While the basic BJP strategy will remain the same, that is to employ organisation to reach out to people, with senior leaders fanning out across the region, localised sentiments will be taken care off says sources.
Before that the BJP may use Union budget to give enhanced allocations for these states going to polls to send out a message. 2018 will say a lot about what happens in 2019.
