This is the Trumpian version of ‘heads I win, tails you lose’. If he wins, the November election is fair. If he loses, well, that’s because it is rigged. “The only way Democrats can win is to cheat,” bellows Donald Trump from the campaign stumps. A CNN poll showed one-third of Americans and two-thirds of Republicans believe Trump’s lie that Joe Biden stole the 2020 elections. Almost all elected Republican congressmen denied Biden’s victory.
The attempt to subvert the 2020 election culminated with Trump supporters attacking the Capitol on January 6. Still, it was amateurish, with the absurd press conference by Trump’s discredited, elderly lawyer-loyalist Rudy Giuliani grandstanding about voter fraud—while black hair dye dripped down his sweaty face. Giuliani was bankrupted and disbarred for peddling those lies. But 2024 is different. This time, Trump’s “election-fraud” campaign is well-planned, well-orchestrated and well-funded. Rightwing organisations are suing, smearing and challenging ballot procedures, rolls and voter eligibility, especially in swing states.
Pro-Trump Republicans are also conniving to change election certification rules before polls. In 2020, Trump pressured a few officials not to certify results, in vain. Georgia’s Republican-dominated state election board recently ruled that officials can withhold certification to conduct a “reasonable inquiry”. What is “reasonable” is undefined. The election board also mandated officials to count ballots by hand, instead of feeding them into tabulating machines—changes that delay and falsify voting results. A local judge invalidated these new rules as “illegal and unconstitutional”.
Trump describes his “election crusaders”—some say useful idiots—as “pit bulls fighting for honesty, transparency and victory”. Like ants, grassroots rightwing diehards are busy bombarding lawsuits and raising objections. Trump also has an ace. In 2020, a relatively unknown Republican congressman mustered many of his colleagues to support a Trump-backed lawsuit that tried to nullify the results in four key states. The attempt failed, but Trump rewarded the man. He became house speaker Mike Johnson.
Trump’s billionaire buddy Elon Musk dispenses $1 million-a-day bonanza lotteries to voters who sign a conservative petition to protect free speech and gun ownership. On X and on stage, Musk amplifies the biggest Trumpian conspiracy theory that Democrats are organising illegal migrants to vote for them—an allegation as baseless as Trump’s claim that Haitian migrants eat pets. Voting by non-citizens is rare because it is illegal, punishable by deportation or five-year jail-term. The Washington Post investigated 14.6 million votes cast in 2016 and 2018 midterm elections—only 372 votes were suspect. That’s 0.0025 per cent. But Trumpian tactics take their toll—half the US population now doubt election results.
Anticipating trouble makes better preparation. The authorities are now extra careful and vigilant. Some officials draw comfort from courts defusing Trump’s bid to overturn the 2020 election. But others are unsure due to the Supreme Court’s recent pro-Trump verdicts. Institutions are combat-ready, galvanising to cope with crises. Says Michigan election supervisor Justin Roebuck, “November will be the greatest stress-test of US democracy, law enforcement and federal courts.”
Election officials are under enormous stress, having been hounded, abused and threatened previously by Trump supporters. Election clerk Marie Wicks says she is not worried about personal safety because her husband, a retired police officer, owns a gun. The world’s most powerful democracy has 170 million voters and 434 million guns. A close or contested verdict in a land that is lethally armed and poisonously polarised can awaken crouching beasts. Says Wicks, “I don’t worry about the election. I worry about the aftermath.”
Pratap is an author and journalist.