First, the good news that comes in threes. India had 1.3 crore 5G users at the beginning of this year, a number that could go above five crore in two years if the “current pace continues”, according to a recent report by Nokia.
Second, with fund infusion in sight, beleaguered telecom operator Vi (formerly Vodafone-Idea) is now expected to finally launch its 5G services in the country at least by Diwali.
Third, 5G-enabled smartphones are the ones most in demand in the market, with sales exceeding 10 crore last summer. Last fortnight, Poco almost breached the 10K barrier, launching the cheapest 5G-enabled handset in the market at just above Rs 10,000.
Now for the reality. They say numbers don’t lie, and crunching just two basic figures given here will give you the true story — over 10 crore 5G phones sold, yet, just above 1 crore are actually using the service.
“5G has not taken off the way 4G has,” said Sunil David, co-chair, digital communications working group, IET Future Tech Panel.
The first crucial issue, everyone agrees, is the cost. Despite an outlier like a Poco, most 5G-enabled devices available in the market are pretty expensive.
Airtel, the first to launch the service in the country, admits as much. In a note released about six months after its launch of 5G services in the country, it said, “5G gives you a ton of benefits, however, you may not find it as affordable as 4G. Many users will require to change their devices. It will result in a financial burden on some users and thus will contribute to challenges in its rollout.”
Of course, this is even before the big challenge of charging a premium on 5G’s supposedly super fast speeds and value adds. Airtel and Jio both did not raise postpaid tariffs after the 5G launch, the plan being to let users experience the benefits before asking them to cough up more. “The operators in India did not raise postpaid tariffs (because) the ability to charge a premium will be dependent on new services that the operator will provide along with the 5G data plan,” pointed out David.
However, for such premium value adds like cloud gaming, using AR/VR apps for accessing rich immersive content and ultra high definition content of OTT to happen, the network connectivity has to be seamless and smooth. Remember how Ericsson demonstrated at an earlier India Mobile Congress how you can have a rock concert through 5G connectivity where the musicians are sitting at different places (or going forward, you can have remote medical procedures where the surgeon could be somewhere else, as long as he is seamlessly connected via a 5G device)? That still remains in the realm of dreams, with 5G infra upgrade still inconsistent, particularly when you move from big urban centres into the hinterland. A counterpoint study late last year pointed out exactly this issue of a patchy network.
While the slow but steady increase in prepaid rates by telecom operators since last year has led to a slowing down in the number of new (regular) mobile connections, at the upper, premium end of the spectrum, 5G’s future fortunes will be determined more by the value on offer than the cost per se. "When you combine (value added) services and bundle with a 5G data plan, the users especially the Generation Z and Generation Alpha would be more than happy to pay a premium for the superior experience and the high quality content,” said David.
