With majority of business for the Indian IT sector coming in from the US market, there is both concern and joy for the sector because of the US presidential elections result. One thing is sure: the new Donald Trump regime in the US is expected to remain vocal about ‘America First’. Its policies around visa regulations and offshore IT engagements are likely to reflect on the Indian IT services in the short term.
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During Trump administration's first term, Indian IT sector reshaped itself, fostering resilience and adaptability. H-1B visa restrictions led Indian IT companies to pivot to US hiring, creating over 1,75,000 jobs by 2019 and expanding local investments. This shift, though challenging, strengthened the Indian IT sector’s ability to meet client needs onshore, while growing demand for digital transformation in North America provided opportunities for Indian IT firms to lead in modernisation and innovation efforts.
“We may see mixed effects on India’s economy. Stricter visa rules could impact Indian IT professionals in the US, but his push to reduce reliance on China might open doors for Indian industries like tech, pharma, and manufacturing. Meanwhile, the growth of American Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India is likely to continue, as US companies increasingly invest here for skilled talent and strategic offshore operations,” said Neeti Sharma, CEO, TeamLease.
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Of late, the Indian IT industry has been investing significantly on building local delivery capabilities in the US, hiring locals and diversifying its client portfolio by going beyond North America. While the dependence on H-1B is not going to go away, they are better-prepared for the nuanced policy shifts that might take place.
“The good news is that Trump's new administration is likely to bring in a significant focus on its economy and show changes on the ground. Businesses need cost advantages to remain competitive and talent for deploying the latest technologies. India is extremely well-poised to fulfil these two needs. Hence, I can imagine many more GCCs being set up in India by the US companies to leverage the talent pool available in India and leverage the cost advantages,” said Aditya Narayan Mishra CEO and MD, CIEL HR.
“Secondly, we expect the CIOs (Chief Information Officers) and the boards of many large and mid-sized companies in the US untie their purse strings to deploy the latest tech and thus, a quick pick-up in new orders for our IT services companies. This shift could drive accelerated development of tech hubs in India, fueling growth in emerging tech fields like artificial intelligence, machine learning, cyber security, and cloud solutions.”
Experts with whom THE WEEK spoke to further pointed out that Trump's win is expected to strengthen the US economy and the dollar, both of which are very beneficial to the IT industry in India. “The possible tax cuts by Trump for domestic production or services would ease pressure on pricing as well as budgets. H-1B visas and the likelihood of dwindling numbers on that will not hurt the IT services given the wide acceptance of remote delivery and that of GCC growth in India. Hence, Trump's win is certainly more favourable to India on IT industry or Services,” said Subramanian S., founder, president and CEO of Ascent HR.
Many industry stake holders are also positive about the business intent that Trump is known for, the impact for IT industry, which could be a benign regime, particularly for higher value-added skills. Besides, Trump regime needs India to open up some of the sectors that are not open for trade, and so, India might have to open those sectors as well.