In a bid to outpace and outdo the US, China is rapidly expanding and modernising its nuclear weapons. Currently, China’s nuclear stockpile is well below the US.
According to a report by the US Defence Intelligence Agency, titled 'Nuclear Challenges: The Growing Capabilities of Strategic Competitors and Regional Rivals', China developing a range of new nuclear capabilities, including its largest buildup of nuclear missile silos; groundmobile, air-launched, and submarine-launched weapons; nuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs); as well as C4ISR capabilities to support a launch-on-warning posture.
Multiple factors, including strategic ambitions, security interests, technological capabilities, and parochial interests of military and industrial stakeholders drive China's nuclear modernisation.
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Beijing, which is rapidly expanding its nuclear warhead stockpile, probably "will introduce new capabilities which carry the potential to destabilise the status quo over the next decade as it develops concepts for new systems’ use and integrates them into its broader warfighting and deterrence doctrine," the report stated.
According to US Department of Defence, the estimated nuclear warhead stockpile of China was somewhere in 200s, but this is expected to at least double by 2030. Beijing probably accelerated its nuclear expansion as its stockpile is now more than 500 operational nuclear warheads and is on track to exceed previous projections, the report said.
“By 2030, we estimate that China will have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads, most of which will be fielded on systems capable of ranging the continental United States,” the report said.
Most of this stockpile growth is expected to come from a silo-based solid-propellant missile project, silo-based liquid-propellant missile expansion, mobile ICBM(intercontinental ballistic missile) expansion, and theater capabilities expansion.
The nuclear strategy of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is based on deterrence of an enemy first strike and counterstrike when deterrence fails, threatening retaliation against an adversary’s military capability, population, and economy.
China very likely is also working to introduce a variety of completely new nuclear capabilities, including ICBM-range nuclear-armed HGVs, to its arsenal, some of which will be fielded in the near future, if not already fielded, the report added.