Will the Naga insurgency see the formation of a new outfit led by Khango Konyak, the ousted chairman of Myanmar-based NSCN(K), or will the outlawed leader of the banned outfit join the ongoing peace process with the Indian government?
Amidst the uncertain peace deal with the biggest Naga insurgent outfit NSCN(IM) in the northeast , the security establishment as well as various Naga groups are keeping their fingers crossed. After NSCN (K) founder S.S. Khaplang's death in Myanmar last year, vice president of the outfit Khango Konyak had taken the reins of the banned NSCN (K).
However, on August 17, Khaplang's nephew Yung Aung was elected as the new chairman of NSCN (K) by a majority vote, ousting the Indian origin Naga leader who was impeached. Khango is a Konyak Naga from Mon district of Nagaland which is a stronghold of the Khaplang faction. He has some 300 cadres behind him besides the Indian origin military commander Niki Sumi.
There is a speculation that Khango has been offered a safe passage out of Myanmar by the new NSCN(K) Burmese leadership and he may join the NSCN(IM), paving the way for his entry into the ongoing peace process.
However, sources in NSCN(IM) said there have been recent exchange of feelers between Khango and the NSCN(IM) leadership led by T. Muivah, but no conclusive decision has been arrived at yet. It was also revealed that Khango has not crossed over to the Indian territory so far and is hiding in the jungles on the Myanmar side.
If Khango decides to float a new outfit, it is going to be a matter of worry for the security brass given his close ties with ULFA leader Paresh Baruah and the umbrella organisation of all Northeast ultras, the United Liberation Front of Western Southeast Asia (UNLFW).
Speaking to THE WEEK, R. Chuba Ozukum, president of Naga Hoho, an organisation that is working for the unification of and reconciliation among all Naga groups, said Khango should be allowed a safe passage into the country and the security forces should not place him under arrest if he returns.
''As part of the ongoing efforts to arrive at a peaceful solution, the security forces should not arrest Khango. On his part, Khango should join the ongoing peace process by joining any of the NSCN factions he is comfortable working with. We hope there is no new outfit that is formed . If we are talking about peace and reconciliation, the government must allow Khango to join the peace process,'' he said.
Voicing the concern of Naga groups, Chuba said the ball is in the Centre's court as far as the signing of a final peace accord is concerned. “The Naga groups have made their demands clear, but when the final peace accord will be signed is not in their hands. Now the ball is in the court of the Indian government on whether it wants to arrive at a solution and sign the accord,'' he said.
If the NSCN(IM) provides him a smooth entry into the outfit, it would be a positive development for the Indian government given the ongoing peace talks with Muivah.
However, sources in the security agencies said if Khango does not join NSCN(IM) and floats his own outfit, it will mean that there will be one more insurgent group the government will have to try sign a ceasefire pact with. Presently, the government has a ceasefire pact with three NSCN factions— NSCN(IM), GPRN/ NSCN and NSCN(R). The newly appointed ceasefire monitoring group chairman Lt Gen Shokin Chauhan is tasked to ensure the agreed ground rules during the operation of ceasefire are not violated.
The chances are unlikely but cannot be ruled out yet, said an official familiar with the developments. Meanwhile, the prevailing uncertainty has also stirred the Naga groups to demand the government make its position clear on whether a final peace pact to end the decades long insurgency will be signed anytime soon .
The worry is that if the delay continues, there may be newer developments like formation of new groups, more factions and other unforeseen developments that could further delay a final solution. Clearly, the Naga groups feel there has been a delay on the part of the NDA government which had signed an ambitious framework agreement with the NSCN(IM) in 2015. The framework agreement was supposed to be the basis for a final peace accord to end the decades long insurgency. The same year NSCN(K ) had split with the NSCN(IM) and walked out of the ceaefire. The Myanmar-based Khaplang faction had then carried out a series of attacks on security forces operating in the northeast.