As China flexes its muscle, can Hasina be India's friend in need?

On Monday morning, Sheikh Hasina gave India the best year-ending gift. Hasina made history by becoming the longest serving prime minister of Bangladesh after her Awami League-led coalition swept the polls by winning 288 seats in a house of 300. In a year, where India's relations with the neighbours have not always been happy, this is welcome news for New Delhi. 

Not surprising that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first leader to congratulate Hasina. In a statement issued by the ministry of external affairs, India welcomed the “successful completion of the parliamentary elections in Bangladesh”. In a phone call with Hasina, Modi “expressed confidence’’ that the “partnership between India and Bangladesh will continue to flourish under her far-sighted leadership’’. The prime minister also reiterated the priority India attaches to Bangladesh as a neighbour, a close partner for regional development, security and cooperation, and a central pillar in India’s 'neighbourhood first' policy.

In the battles of the begums—Bangladesh politics is often reduced to Hasina vs Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party—Hasina’s win, and her open pro-India stand, will be comforting at a time when the neighbourhood is increasingly coming under the embrace of the dragon—Sri Lanka and Nepal’s debt with China is well known.

Hasina has stood firm against the onslaught of Islamic radicalisation. She has been more than willing to help India in the crackdown on the northeast insurgency. Since the attack on the Holey Café in 2016, there has been a serious crackdown on even a hint of radicalisation. Beyond just security concerns that India and Bangladesh share—it helps that Bangladesh is suspicious of Pakistan—there is also the assurance that Hasina will put India first. China, may have made inroads, but India has made it clear where the red lines are. In return, India has chosen to remain silent, rather diplomatically, over the election. 

Bangladesh is also the only country in the region, to which India has offered USD 500 million worth Line of Credit for buying defence equipment from it. There are other grand plans, from connectivity to military training.

India stayed firmly away from even referring to 'free and fair' election for once. India was not an issue in the elections. Even for the BNP which has been, in the past, not known for being warm to the neighbouring country. The ghost of reacting quickly, as in the case of Maldives, had haunted India. However, there were signs as to how much support Hasina enjoyed with India. In summer, India sent back Lord Alexander Carlile from the Delhi airport even as he came with a valid visa. Carlile, a legal consultant to jailed former Bangladesh prime minister Khaleda Zia, was coming to the capital to lobby about the unfair treatment of his client. 

There was no nail-biting finish. This was an election where the results were predictable. Hasina has, over her four terms in power, managed to wipe out any opposition. Her arch-rival Zia has been put behind bars, under graft charges. She has been barred from contesting elections. There have been allegations of rigging and the lead up to the election has seen violence. At the last count, there were 17 casualties.

Hasina’s sweep—she has now got brute majority of parliament—has raised questions. Even before the elections, there have been murmurs about whether the polls would be “free and fair” at all. Post the results, with the opposition parties rejecting the results and demanding “a new election under a neutral government’’, these voices will only get louder. Also, the arrests of activists like Shahidul Alam, a photo journalist, have brought to the fore the kind of fear that the civil society lives with. Dissent, in Bangladesh, comes at a heavy price. For India, unconditional support to a government with authoritarian tendencies, will be hypocritical and difficult to justify.

It doesn’t help that in 2014, the elections were boycotted by the opposition BNP. Hasina won the elections then unopposed. This time, the opposition party contested, but didn’t make much headway. Yet, India has a lot at stake in its friendship with Hasina. Described as the “golden era’’ by Modi when he visited Bengladesh in the summer, the Indo-Bangladesh relations have been a bright spot in a 'neighbourhood first' policy that was not always successful.  The level of cooperation between the two governments is reflected in the Land Boundary Agreement in 2015.  “It was pending for so long that we lost hope. I congratulate the entire political class in India for finally making it happen,” Hasina said during the visit. 

Settling border disputes were never easy and bloodshed is not uncommon, she had said.

With China becoming more aggressive in the area, India needs a friend to depend on. Hasina is that. However, the question is at what cost?