Why BJP's gamble with Citizenship Bill could backfire

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's push to favour non-Muslims, especially Hindus, in the northeast has created an existential crisis for the BJP with all its major allies threatening to snap alliances with the saffron party. If the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill gets cleared in the Rajya Sabha, almost all allies of the BJP in the region could withdraw its support for the government. 

Even if the governments of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura might survive, the BJP would lose Manipur. It would be forced to withdraw its ministers from Meghalaya and Nagaland. Surprisingly, even the move to bring back persecuted Christians from the neighbouring countries did not melt the heart of BJP's Christian allies in Meghalaya and Nagaland. 

This also could mean that BJP chief Amit Shah's dream of winning 21 of 25 Lok Sabha seats in the region in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls would just remain a dream. 

Hindus are a majority population in Assam, Tripura and Sikkim—three of the seven northeastern states. However, a majority of them would not allow return of other Hindus to their land. A terrific job crisis and lack of means for earning in the northeast are the reasons why these states opposed the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016. The three states already have a significant migrant population. Notably, a similar move to appease the refugees from Sikh, Parsi, Buddhist and Jain communities had not elicited similar responses from states like Punjab, Rajasthan, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh where they have settled today. This is because the number of such refugees were fewer than what India received from Bangladesh, one of the densely populated countries in the world.

On the other hand, northeast is burning and all insurgent groups have geared up to incite the indigenous people of the all seven states to reject the BJP and if needed take the route of violent movement.

Despite that, Modi and his party would try to get the bill cleared in the Rajya Sabha and bring a law as it believes that the decision would help it tremendously in West Bengal, Punjab and Kerala. 

In Bengal, the BJP is likely to play the card of Hindu-Bengali refugees to earn the support of the Matua community, who originally hailed from Bangladesh. The community has a tremendous clout in the entire North 24 Parganas district. At least four Lok Sabha constituencies have a large number of Matua presence. In addition, the seven border districts of Bengal, flooded with infiltrators (from both Hindu and Muslim communities) from Bangladesh, are divided over their religions. This was indicated after the bloody riots in almost all the border districts of Bengal in recent times.

In Punjab, where the BJP performed badly in 2014, the party might use the Sikh card to convey to the voters that it is the saffron party that came to the rescue of the homeless Sikhs, who took refuge in India after being persecuted in Afghanistan or Pakistan.

The final aim of the BJP would be Kerala. The party would try to project itself as a Christian-friendly party that is ready to provide shelters to Christians from Pakistan or Bangladesh, whose attempts to move to India was thwarted by none other than the Congress and the Left parties—the two prime stakeholders of Kerala politics.

That said, however, the northeast is likely to give a thumps down to PM Modi's moves. "I hope the bills would be blocked in the Rajya Sabha. But if it is passed, we would have to seriously consider our tie-up with the BJP," said Mizoram chief minister Zoramthanga.

In Tripura, too, BJP ally IPFT, with whom it ousted the Left from power only last year, has threatened a stern action. In many parts of the hilly area of Tripura, violence erupted over the introduction of bill.

But what would hurt the BJP the most is the aggression of the Assamese Hindus, who constitute a majority of its vote share in the state. At more than 35 per cent, Assam has the largest Muslim population in the northeast and is one of the heavily Muslim-populated states in India. At the same time, around 20 lakh (of the 40 lakh) Hindus were found to be infiltrators, according to the draft of the National Register of Citizens (NRC). Even if the government do not deport them back to Bangladesh, they would lose their voting rights by the middle of the year (before the Lok Sabha elections). 

This fear has already been shared by a senior minister of Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma, who equated the situation of his state with that of Pakistan, given the situation where a large number of Hindus are being expelled from the state.

However, the people of Assam (barring the Bengali-speaking Hindu community from the Barak Valley) are not ready to share their resources any more with outsiders—be it Hindu or Muslim. Today, blood is not thicker than water in Assam as government after government have failed to provide local employment in the region.

It is to be seen how the voters would react to the new move, which even the BJP had not anticipated. Assam assembly Speaker and BJP MLA H.N. Goswami on Thursday did not hide his concern and said, "The decision to pass the bill was taken in a haste". Obviously, he has understood the pulse of the people and sent a warning to the leaders of his party that it is playing a big gamble which might even backfire.