West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said that her rally on January 19, at Kolkata's Brigade Parade Ground, will smash the record of Jyoti Basu's legendary 1977 Brigade rally. Days before the state assembly elections, a charismatic Basu raised the slogan of ‘Congress hatao’ and promised Bengal an end to overwhelming poverty and political violence. The meeting was marked, not by leaders on the dais, but by the massive public participation—unofficial reports suggested that more than 25 lakh people attended the rally.
Four decades later, Banerjee is raising the slogan ‘BJP hatao’, portraying the rally as a game changer in the national politics. Banerjee called the rally a platform for opposition unity. Even though Banerjee has not openly declared her prime ministerial ambitions, the signs are as clear as day.
January 19, for CM Banerjee, would be an acid test as she will no doubt attempt to consolidate her strength in a non-BJP, non-Congress setting. If the regional parties combined win around 200 seats in the general elections, they can determine the prime minister. But, she has to negotiate the different sub-groups in the alliance. SP’s Akhilesh Yadav will support BSP’s Mayawati for prime minister. Congress believes there can be no government against BJP without Rahul Gandhi, a claim that would be supported by TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu. Gandhi might even get all southern parties on his side, barring Jagan Reddy's YSRCP and K. Chandrasekhar Rao's TRS. Gandhi will also have the blessings of Sharad Pawar, since their parties are in alliance in Maharashtra.
Banerjee is on a sticky wicket. KCR, the first proponent of an anti-BJP front in 2017, and who then arrived in Kolkata to meet Banerjee, will not grace the occasion; he is not comfortable sharing stage with either the Congress or Chandrababu Naidu. Sonia and Rahul Gandhi will give the meeting a miss and send a party leader instead. There will be no Naveen Patnaik. DMK chief Stalin will be non-committal as he has already chosen Gandhi as his prime ministerial choice. The biggest snub to Banerjee's invitation came from Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan (CPI(M)), as no response has been received so far.
Banerjee’s rally will most likely witness the presence of Akhilesh Yadav, Tejashwi Yadav, Sharad Pawar, Chandrababu Naidu, M.K. Stalin, Omar Abdullah and H.D. Kumaraswamy. However, their prime ministerial choice will most likely be Mayawati or Gandhi, and not Banerjee.
The occasion, in all likelihood, will be a targeted fillip for her own party in the state. At a time when the BJP is threatening to break the TMC—with a number of leaders believed to be in touch with the saffron party—Banerjee would likely look to enforce her support base in West Bengal, which the BJP claims is receding by day. The biggest ever rally, in terms of gathering—if it happens—would only be Bengal-centric, and not create ripples across India as Banerjee hopes it will.