Amid Sabarimala ripples, can Tharoor expect hat-trick in Thiruvananthapuram?

The Lok Sabha constituency that represents the Kerala capital and surrounding areas is the confluence of political undercurrents. The Congress recorded an impressive victory in Thiruvananthapuram constituency in 2009 through Shashi Tharoor, but the former Union minister saw his lead slide from 99,998 votes to 15,470 votes five years later. Tharoor defeated his challenger, BJP warhorse O. Rajagopal, only after a nail-biting finish in 2014.

Thiruvananthapuram harbours no loyalties. CPI veteran M.N. Govindan Nair won the seat with 69,822 votes in 1977, yet he lost by a whopping 1,07,057 votes to Congress rival A. Neelalohithadasan Nadar in the next election. The Congress retained the seat for three more elections through A. Charles. Even O.N.V. Kurup, the celebrated poet, could not wrest the seat for the Left Democratic Front.

Electoral prospects in Thiruvananthapuram depend on two critical factors: the compulsions of caste-based bargains and the charisma of the candidate. Though communal undercurrents are at play in Thiruvananthapuram, the constituency is not captive to any particular community. Votes are cast based on the situations in the Central and state political landscapes. Thiruvananthapuram constituency has always defied predictions. This time the pitch is queered by the issue related to the entry of women to the Sabarimala shrine.

The Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency comprises seven assembly segments—Thiruvananthapuram, Kazhakkoottam, Vattiyoorkkavu, Nemom, Kovalam, Neyyattinkara and Parassala.

The CPI(M) won the Neyyattinkara, Parassala and Kazakkoottam segments in the assembly election of 2016 and the Congress won Thiruvananthapuram, Vattiyoorkavu and Kovalam. The BJP made its debut in the Kerala assembly by winning Nemom.

The Left Democratic Front also wields power in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, which spans over three assembly segments in Thiruvananthapuram. While the LDF won 43 of the 100 seats in the corporation council, the BJP won 35 and the Congress got 21 seats.

The Lok Sabha constituency is dominated by Hindu voters. Hindus constitute 66.4 per cent of the population in the district, while Christians are 19.10 per cent and Muslims 13.72 per cent. Nairs have an upper hand in the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency, followed by Nadars and Ezhavas.

While Nairs are in a majority in Thiruvananthapuram, Vattiyoorkavu, Nemom and Neyyattinkara assembly segments, Nadars are a critical force in Parassala, Nemom, Kovalam and Neyyattinkara areas. Christian and Muslim voters dominate coastal areas. Yet all these patterns change in accordance with the personality traits of the candidates.

If Govindan Nair benefited from the goodwill in his community and an efficient campaign by the CPI in 1977, the wind changed in favour of Neelalohithadasan Nadar in the next election. A. Charles too relied on the support of the Nadar community to retain the seat in 1984, 1989 and 1991. The choice of Charles, an influential leader in the Church of South India, was a political manoeuvre by K. Karunakaran to split the votes in the Nadar community.

The CPI struck back in 1996 when K.V. Surendranath defeated the Congress candidate. The Congress re-established its position of primacy in Thiruvananthapuram when Karunakaran himself was offered the seat in 1998. In 1999, V.S. Sivakumar retained the seat for the Congress.

The Congress's grip on Thiruvananthapuram constituency loosened in 2004 when the CPI fielded former chief minister P.K. Vasudevan Nair as its candidate. The party veteran was called back from retirement to cash in on the goodwill he enjoyed among the voters of Thiruvananthapuram in general and Nairs in particular. His demise caused a byelection, which was won by party colleague Pannian Raveendran.

Thiruvananthapuram constituency rose to national prominence in 2009 when Tharoor was picked as the Congress candidate. Tharoor recorded an impressive win in his debut but struggled to ward off the BJP challenge in 2014. Tharoor owes his second chance to the minority voters in the coastal areas who consolidated behind him to avoid a BJP victory. The BJP had played its cards well, fielding O. Rajagopal to eat into the Nair vote base of Tharoor.

The BJP was not always a force to reckon with in Thiruvananthapuram. The party's electoral debut in the constituency was in 1989 when P. Ashok Kumar won 56,046 votes. The BJP increased its tally to 80,566 in 1991 through Rajagopal and 74,904 in 1996 through K. Raman Pillai. In 1998. BJP's Kerala Varma Raja scored 94,303 votes.

Rajagopal raised the bar for the BJP in 1999 by polling 1,55,221 votes and bettered his own record in 2004 with 2,28,052 votes. BJP's choice flopped in 2009 as P.K. Krishna Das polled only 84,094 votes. In 2014, Rajagopal was back as the BJP candidate. He lost to Tharoor, but his score was an impressive 2,82,336 votes.

In short, the BJP owes its formidable presence in the constituency to Rajagopal. The BJP made a mark in the corporation council election riding on a national wave that swept it to power in New Delhi. A year later, Rajagopal opened the party's account in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

The BJP commands the loyalty of a section of the Nair and Brahmin voters in the city who used to vote for the party even before Modi's rise to power. The party has to ensure the support of a lion's share of the Nair voters if it wants to win the seat. BJP's poll managers hope that the Sabarimala issue has drawn such a section towards the party. Yet they have no solution to make up for the alienated minority votes.

The major problem faced by the BJP is a candidate who can match the stature of Rajagopal. Many in the party now rue the decisions that resulted in an over-reliance on the veteran. Mizoram Governor Kummanam Rajasekharan, party state president P.S. Sreedharan Pillai and actor-turned-MP Suresh Gopi are the other leaders whose names are being floated. Even the name of superstar Mohanlal is being discussed even though the actor has made it clear that he was not willing to jump into the fray.

Finding an acceptable candidate is a challenge for the Left Democratic Front too. The CPI is expected to suggest Panniyan Raveendran. The ruling front may face headwinds caused by the Sabarimala issue, especially the opposition from the Nair Service Society.

The LDF leaders are worried that the front might end up losing a section of Nair women who see the state government's attempts to comply with the Supreme Court order on Sabarimala as an affront to their faith.

Cherian Philip, a CPI(M) fellow traveller in Thiruvananthapuram, said the left front's chances in Thiruvananthapuram defied predictions in the changed political situation. "The LDF has an upper hand in the new situation but a lot depends on the candidate," he said.

A large section of Nair voters in Thiruvananthapuram constituency are strong supporters of the Congress. The party is keenly watching for any inroads the BJP is able to cut into its traditional vote bank. The Congress is also making all attempts to consolidate its base among the minorities. Tharoor is likely to be the party candidate for a third time.

-Via onmanorama