In 2014, when the then AIADMK czarina, Jayalalithaa Jayaram, hit the campaign trail during the Lok Sabha polls, she was confident that there was a 'lady wave' in Tamil Nadu. She demanded the AIADMK cadres and the people ensure that the BJP was defeated.
Then, Jayalalithaa decided to go it alone in the elections, without a single alliance partner. Five years down the line, with Jayalalithaa no more, the followers of her AIADMK have decided to have the BJP as its alliance partner. In addition, the PMK of Dr S. Ramadoss and the DMDK of actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth will also be part of the grand alliance headed by the AIADMK.
With the inclusion of the PMK, DMDK, BJP and others as partners, the AIADMK has bright prospects in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, going by the existing vote percentage. While the AIADMK's real strength is not known in the absence of Jayalalithaa and the emergence of the breakaway T.T.V. Dhinakaran faction, the addition of the PMK and DMDK as allies will boost the ruling party's prospects in northern Tamil Nadu and parts of the western and southern districts.
If one were to go by the performance of the PMK, DMDK and other smaller parties in the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2016 assembly polls, respectively, the allies could contribute up to 14 per cent vote share in at least 14 Parliamentary constituencies in north Tamil Nadu.
If smaller parties, including the PMK, maintain the vote share they secured in 39 constituencies in 2009, 2014 and 2016, it could tilt the balance in favour of the AIADMK-BJP alliance. These parties had polled 48.13 lakh votes across the state, contributing to a 11.14 per cent vote share.
As far as the PMK is considered, the party of Dr S. Ramadoss had proved its mettle in 2016 by going it alone and promoting Ramadoss's son, Anbumani. Ramadoss, with the slogan Mattrum, Munnetram, Anbumani (change, development, Anbumani) had proved that the PMK was a force to reckon with as it held a chunk of the major Vanniyar vote bank in the state.
In 2016, the PMK performed its best in the northern districts, particularly in Dharmapuri, Pennagaram and five assembly constituencies in the Dharmapuri parliament constituency. The PMK had bagged close to 2.86 lakh votes in the Dharmapuri region in 2016.
Apart from this, the PMK had secured substantial votes, ranging from 1.18 lakh to 1.87 lakh, in constituencies like Arani, Villupuram, Arakkonam, Kanchipuram, Thiruvallur, Chidambaram and Cuddalore. In Salem, where the PMK has a considerable voter base, it polled 1.66 lakh votes.
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However, a negative factor for the PMK this time could be the 'opportunistic' politics that Ramadoss has been known for. The senior Ramadoss who once announced that the PMK will never align with any of the Dravidian majors in the state, and had dubbed AIADMK as the most corrupt government, has chosen to be part of the AIADMK-BJP alliance.
This move of Ramadoss could cost him a few votes if the opposition bring up the issue of his change in stance. On the other hand, the demise of senior PMK leader J. Guru, aka Kaduvetti Guru, who was once considered the man Friday of Ramadoss, could dent the PMK vote bank.
Guru was considered a strong Vanniyar leader beyond Ramadoss in many of the northern districts and he had a considerable following. After the death of Guru in 2018, there were several reports of differences in opinion between Ramadoss and Guru's family members.