Why Sharad Pawar isn't contesting Lok Sabha elections?

In February, when Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) president Sharad Pawar announced that he would contest the 2019 general elections from the Madha Lok Sabha constituency, a WhatsApp message went viral in Solapur district. “Madha... Baramatikarana paada (Madha... defeat the candidate from Baramati)” read the title of the message. No one knows who wrote it, but it spread like wildfire. 

Pawar, the former Union agriculture minister who had traditionally represented Baramati, had won the 2009 elections from Madha. He had vacated the Baramati seat for his daughter Supriya Sule who has won from the constituency ever since. In 2014, Pawar decided not to contest in any more elections, choosing to be a member of the Rajya Sabha, to which he was elected in May 2014. It then came as a surprise to party outsiders when he expressed his intention to make a return and contest from Madha again this year. His announcement came after a section of NCP leaders in Maharashtra urged him to do so. In hushed tones, the NCP leaders also expressed the possibility of a hung Parliament after the elections, and in such a scenario, Pawar has his best chance to become the prime minister. His leadership would be acceptable to all, even to the Shiv Sena and a section of the BJP, the media was told off the record.

But, Pawar made yet another U-turn, asserting that he would not participate in the upcoming elections. He said that Supriya and grandnephew Parth Pawar would be the only two candidates from the Pawar family, contesting from Baramati and Maval constituencies in Pune district.

Former Maharashtra finance minister and NCP state president Jayant Patil told THE WEEK that Pawar made it clear that there should not be three members of his family contesting the Lok Sabha elections. “He told us that he would not like to limit himself to one constituency again. He said that he has won elections on 14 occasions and the time had come to give opportunity to young leaders,” said Patil.

According to Patil, Parth Pawar, son of former Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar, has been working in Maval constituency for almost a year now. He has travelled extensively in the constituency, built a network with the youth and has taken keen interest in the issues concerning the people. “With Parth taking active interest, there was a growing demand from Maval that he should be the Lok Sabha candidate," said Patil. "Our partner PWP (Peasants and Workers Party) also told Pawar saheb to nominate Parth from Maval. So Pawar saheb thought that if Parth's candidature can ensure victory for the party in one more constituency, then he must get a chance. We are sure that we will retain Madha, [but] victory in Maval is important because we have never won it.”

NCP MLA Jitendra Awhad said that the party leadership is still hopeful of convincing Pawar to contest from Madha. “Pawar always thinks what kind of message his actions will convey to people at large. It was natural that he felt uncomfortable with three members of his family contesting the elections. He always told us that if we corner all the seats, what will young party workers work for,” Awhad said. “But we want him to contest and hope that he will change his mind.”

Another reason for Pawar's decision, according to Awhad, was that the NCP founder did not want opposition numbers in Rajya Sabha to go down. “The RSS and the BJP want to change the Constitution. For this, they will require majority in the Rajya Sabha. They aim to achieve that by 2022. In such a situation, every opposition member in the Rajya Sabha counts,” said Awhad.

According to Nawab Malik, chief spokesperson of the NCP, Pawar wanted to concentrate on the entire state. “Each and every seat will matter in this election. Given this situation, it is natural that Pawar saheb felt that he should concentrate all his energy on the state as a whole so that maximum number of NCP-Congress candidates win. If you contest from a particular seat, it is given that you will have to spend considerable time in that constituency,” said Malik.

Insiders who have known Pawar have a different tale to share. According to a senior Congress leader who has known Pawar for decades, the NCP chief was not confident of winning from Madha this time and hence chose to opt out. He pointed out that in 2009, when Pawar handed over Baramati to Supriya, a search for a suitable constituency for the NCP chief began within the party. At first, the party leadership chose Shirur, but later found out that the Shiv Sena's Shivajirao Adhalarao Patil was too strong a candidate to be dislodged. Then they zeroed in on Madha, as Pawar's ancestral home is in a village in the Madha taluk. The BJP fielded Subhas Deshmukh against Pawar in 2009. The NCP leadership then tried to win over Deshmukh by assuring him a seat in the Vidhan Sabha. But he did not budge. Pawar's victory was never doubted, but the fact that Deshmukh was approached by the NCP was significant for the BJP to make inroads in Madha.

In 2014, the NCP gave the Madha ticket to Vijaysinh Mohite-Patil, who has been a Pawar loyalist. He has an immense clout in Solapur, thanks to a network of sugar cooperatives, milk dairies and other cooperative institutions. There is a dedicated cadre of activists in the district who are more loyal to the Mohite-Patil family than to the NCP. When he was given the ticket, his victory was certain but in the Modi wave, the margin came down to about 40,000 votes.

This time, Sanjay Shinde, brother of NCP MLA Babanrao Shinde from Madha, has said that he would contest the election on a BJP ticket if Mohite-Patil was made the NCP's Madha candidate again. Though Mohite-Patil and Babanrao Shinde belong to the same party, they are bitter rivals. So it is difficult for the NCP to give Mohite-Patil the ticket again. Sensing this, he was one of the first NCP leaders to urge Pawar to contest from Madha.

Sachin Javalkote, resident editor of the Lokmat in Solapur, noted that people did not react well to Pawar's candidature this time. “People feel that when Pawar was an MP from 2009 to 2014, he was not able to transform Madha into another Baramati. When we were reporting, a number of people told us that an outsider should not contest from Madha. They said that they had lined up to vote for Pawar in 2009 as that time there was a chance that he could become prime minister in case of a hung Parliament,” said Javalkote.

It is learnt that Pawar, too, carried out an independent survey in the constituency. A team of 70-odd people from Baramati travelled across six assembly segments in Madha and reported their findings to Pawar. They found that things did not look good for him.

Pawar's withdrawal also had to do with Parth working extensively in Maval. Everyone in the Pawar family knew about the young Pawar's electoral ambition. Parth himself had told his granduncle that he was keen to contest. 

A few years ago, at an event to launch a book on Pawar, Sunil Tatkare, who was then the NCP president of Maharashtra, had said: “Pawar saheb, we seek your approval for everything that we do. But this thing (the book and its launch) we decided should be a surprise for you.” After Tatkare's speech, Ajit told him that their generation was in their 50s and the time to seek approval was over. It is time for us to take charge and do things, Ajit had told Tatkare. In pushing for his son's candidature, Ajit Pawar stayed true to his words. Ajit took up Parth's case, applied the right emotional pressure, ensured that none of the leaders in the NCP objected to Parth's candidature and thus made sure that the senior Pawar gave his approval. With Ajit and Parth not willing to hold back and the negative feedback coming from Madha, Sharad Pawar eventually opted out of the electoral race.