The 2019 general election has been billed by Congress chief Rahul Gandhi as being a “fight for India’s soul”. That may be so for people who see elections in spiritual terms, but those interested in raw numbers will concede the coming polls are nothing less than a struggle for survival for Rahul’s party.
THE WEEK has compiled statistics from all Lok Sabha elections from 1984 to 2014 to give readers a glimpse of how the Congress has weakened over the decades, while the BJP has seen a steady rise (the exception being the 2009 election). The figures will also show the importance of some major states and the impact parties like the Samajwadi Party and BSP have had.
1984
The 1984 election was the BJP’s first shot at national elections. The party had been formed months after Indira Gandhi returned to power by winning the elections of January 1980. The 1984 elections came amid a sympathy vote for the Congress after Indira’s assassination. Punjab and Assam did not vote in 1984 on account of domestic disturbances, with both states voting the following year.
The BJP was in 1984 still a marginal player on the national scene, contesting only 224 of the 514 seats in the Lok Sabha then. The BJP recorded its worst-ever performance, winning a mere two seats (a seat each in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat) and recording a vote share of 7.74 per cent. The Congress, on the other hand, recorded its biggest-ever election victory, winning 404 seats, with a vote share of 49.10 per cent. The Congress went on to bag 10 more seats in the 1985 polls held in Assam and Punjab.
Given the extent of the Congress’s sweep, putting up raw numbers may seem pointless. But the grand old party effectively dominated several major states: then-undivided Uttar Pradesh (winning 83 seats), Maharashtra (43), undivided Bihar (48 seats), undivided Madhya Pradesh (40 seats), Rajasthan (25 seats), Karnataka (24 seats), Gujarat (24 seats) and Odisha (20). The subsequent elections will show the significance of winning these states.
1989
By 1989, the Rajiv Gandhi government had been battered by allegations of corruption in the Bofors scam, criticism over the Indian involvement in the Sri Lankan civil war and its handling of the Punjab militancy, among many other issues. In addition to playing up charges against the Rajiv government, the BJP also took up key issues close to Hindutva such as alleging minority appeasement in the Shah Bano case.
The BJP came into its own in the 1989 polls, winning 85 of the 225 seats it contested, recording a vote share of 11.36 per cent. The Congress won 197 off the 510 seats it contested, being reduced to less than half of its 1984 figure. The grand old party had a vote share of 39.53 per cent.
The BJP lent support to the Janata Dal, which won 143 seats; the coalition was also backed by the CPI(M), which won 33 seats, and smaller regional parties. The BJP made inroads into the Congress’s vote banks winning seats in Gujarat (12), Bihar (8), Madhya Pradesh (27), Rajasthan (13) and Uttar Pradesh (8).
Greater harm was done to the Congress in these states by the Janata Dal. The party recorded big wins in Bihar (32 seats), Gujarat (11 seats), Rajasthan (11 seats), Odisha (16 seats) and Uttar Pradesh (54 seats).
1991
The 1991 election was fought at a time of great political upheaval, caused by the twin forces of ‘Mandir’ and ‘Mandal’ unleashed by the BJP and Janata Dal, respectively, to expand and retain their influence. While the BJP, under L.K. Advani, championed the construction of a Ram temple at the site of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya, the Janata Dal government, led by V.P. Singh, ordered the implementation of the Mandal Commission’s report on increasing reservation for other backward classes. Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir did not vote with the rest of the country due to militancy issues.
Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated during the election campaign; the resulting sympathy wave helped boost the Congress’s numbers to 232 seats, with the party having a vote share of 36.26 per cent. 1991 was the last election in which a single party secured a vote share of over 30 per cent, until Narendra Modi led the BJP to victory in 2014. However, both Mandal and Mandir ensured the Congress slipped to a mere five seats in Uttar Pradesh as the Janata Dal and BJP vied for supremacy.
The Congress went on to win 12 more seats when Punjab went to polls in 1992.
The BJP won 120 seats out of the 468 it contested. While the rise in seats from 85 was an impressive performance, the party also significantly increased its vote share to 20.11 per cent. Like 1989, the BJP won the lion share of its seats from Uttar Pradesh (51), Gujarat (20), Madhya Pradesh (12) and Rajasthan (12).
1996
1996 is remembered as an election that threw up a fractured, indecisive mandate. But it was also the first election in which the BJP became the single-largest party. In addition to capitalising on sentiment created by the Ayodhya Ram mandir movement, the BJP also highlighted corruption charges against then prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao of the Congress. The BJP also introduced a key theme that would mark all its future election campaigns—projecting a single popular leader for the top post. In this case, it was Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
The BJP won 161 of the 471 seats it contested, while the Congress collapsed to 140 seats, a loss of over 100 seats from 1991. The grand old party still maintained a lead in vote share: it won 28.80 per cent of the popular vote against the BJP’s 20.29 per cent.
Like in the previous two Lok Sabha polls, the same handful of seats provided the bulk of the BJP’s tally: Gujarat (16 seats), Madhya Pradesh (27), Rajasthan (12) and Uttar Pradesh (52). The new ‘addition’ to the list of states where the BJP made major inroads was Maharashtra, where it won 18 seats a year after it formed a coalition government in the state with the Shiv Sena.
On the other hand, the Congress saw losses nationwide. The Congress continued its poor performance in Uttar Pradesh, winning five seats, as the BSP and Samajwadi Party, which emerged from the splintering Janata Dal, made significant inroads among specific caste and community groups.
1998
Similar to 1996, 1998 threw up a fractured mandate, with the BJP again being the single-largest party. The 1998 election was necessitated by the Congress pulling support for the United Front government of I.K. Gujral. The BJP again projected Atal Bihari Vajpayee, showing him as a decisive leader at a time of great political instability. Unlike 1996, the BJP had stitched up a pre-poll alliance, the National Democratic Alliance, featuring constituents such as the Shiv Sena, Samata Party and AIADMK.
In 1998, the BJP won 182 seats, while the Congress bagged 141 seats. A key highlight of the election was the fact the BJP managed to bridge the gap in vote share, bagging 25.59 per cent votes versus the Congress’s 25.82 per cent. Like in previous elections, the bulk of the BJP’s support came from Gujarat (19 seats), Madhya Pradesh (30) and Uttar Pradesh (57 seats). The party also secured 20 seats in Bihar, in alliance with the Samata Party, and Karnataka, where it won 13 seats.
The Congress managed to claw back its presence in Maharashtra winning 33 seats, in the wake of disenchantment against the Shiv Sena-BJP government. However, the party hit rock-bottom in Uttar Pradesh, not winning a single seat.
1999
The BJP went into the 1999 election, in the backdrop of the Kargil war victory and capitalised on the perception that the Congress had engineered the fall of the Vajpayee government with the AIADMK earlier that year. And it reflected in the result.
The Congress fell to its worst Lok Sabha performance, winning just 114 seats. The Congress retained its lead in vote share, winning 28.30 per cent of the votes compared to the BJP’s 23.75 per cent. The BJP won 182 seats.
The BJP’s victory in 1999 can be attributed to its better management of alliances. In Andhra Pradesh, it won seven seats, thanks to its alliance with TDP; 23 seats in Bihar in coordination with the Samata Party and 13 seats in Maharashtra. The BJP continued its good show in states such as Gujarat (20 seats), Madhya Pradesh (29 out of 40 seats) and Rajasthan (16 seats). The biggest disappointment for the BJP was its fall in Uttar Pradesh, where it bagged 29 of the 77 seats it contested as the Samajwadi Party (26 seats) and BSP (14 seats) improved their respective tallies.
The 1999 election was a forgettable affair for the Congress, with the only highlight being wins in 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh. 1999 was also the first election in which there was a Nehru-Gandhi on the ballot since 1991. Sonia Gandhi won from Amethi and Bellary (Karnataka) in her maiden electoral outing.
2004
The 2004 election was advanced by Atal Bihari Vajpayee in the wake of massive victories in assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in late 2003. The government had also promoted an ‘India Shining’ campaign in the wake of economic growth and the presence of what the BJP termed a “feel good” factor. The opinion polls were predicting another tenure for Vajpayee. The only major pre-poll development for the Congress was its decision to go in for alliances in multiple states such as Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal... which proved crucial.
The Congress won 145 seats against the BJP’s 138 seats. The Congress retained its advantage in vote share, winning 26.53 per cent votes versus 22.16 per cent for the BJP. In addition to its allies, the Congress was able to form a government with the support of the CPI(M), SP and BSP.
The BJP did well in some traditional bastions such as Madhya Pradesh (25 seats) and Rajasthan (21 seats). However, it took hits in another stronghold, Gujarat, where it won 14 seats. The BJP sunk to a third of its 1999 tally in Uttar Pradesh, winning just 10 seats.
The Congress’s tally was distributed with seats across the country, with Andhra Pradesh accounting for most of the seats, 29. The Congress won 9 seats in Uttar Pradesh. Both major national parties ceded space in Uttar Pradesh to the Samajwadi Party (35 seats) and BSP (19 seats).
2009
The 2009 election saw the BJP firmly in the post-Vajpayee era as his deputy, L.K. Advani, was projected as the tough ‘iron man’ who would be prime minister. For a change, the Congress projected the incumbent prime minister, Manmohan Singh, as the head of a possible government. The 2009 polls were significant for another reason: both parties contested near-equal numbers of seats, unlike in previous polls when the BJP fought in fewer states. In 2009, the BJP fought in 433 seats, while the Congress contested in 440.
The BJP recorded its worst-ever performance since 1989, winning 116 seats, while the Congress won 206 seats, its best outing since 1991. There was a difference of close to 10 per cent in vote share, with the BJP bagging 18.80 per cent of votes compared with the Congress’s 28.55 per cent.
Only in Chhattisgarh, did the BJP see a dominant performance, winning 10 of the 11 seats. In Karnataka also, the BJP won a majority of the seats, winning 18 constituencies. Its tally in traditional bastions such as Madhya Pradesh (16 seats), Gujarat (15 seats) and Rajasthan (4 seats) fell below expectations. However, like in 2004, Uttar Pradesh provided the worst news: the BJP won just 10 seats, its worst performance in the state since 1989 and the first time in 20 years that it slipped to below second place in terms of seats.
Like in 2004, Andhra Pradesh was the state that provided the most seats to the Congress, with 33 constituencies won in 2009. While Rajasthan also saw the Congress winning 20 seats, Uttar Pradesh provided the biggest surprise: 21 MPs of the grand old party won. It was its best performance in India’s most populous state since 1984. The Congress won the second-most number of seats in Uttar Pradesh after the Samajwadi Party (23 seats); the BSP won 20 seats.
2014
2014 was the year of Narendra Modi. Capitalising on resentment against allegations of corruption during the 10 years of Congress-led rule, the BJP projected Modi as a ‘larger than life’ leader.
The BJP became the first party to get a majority of the seats in Lok Sabha elections since 1984, winning 282 of the 428 seats it contested. The Congress, of course, sank to its worst-ever tally, winning just 44 of the 464 seats it contested.
For the first time ever, the BJP exceeded the Congress in terms of vote share. The BJP won 31.34 per cent of the vote compared with just 19.52 per cent for the Congress.
Remember those seats that gave the Congress over 300 seats in 1984? Leaving out Odisha, here is the BJP’s tally in all those states (including Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand): Uttar Pradesh (71), Gujarat (26), Rajasthan (25), Madhya Pradesh (27), Chhattisgarh (10), Jharkhand (12), Maharashtra (23), Bihar (22) and Karnataka (17). Thus, the same states that powered the Congress to an overwhelming victory in 1984 did the same with the BJP 30 years later.
The Congress was reduced to single digits in all the states it contested in. The worst losses were in Andhra Pradesh, where its tally fell from 33 seats to just two and Uttar Pradesh, where it won just two seats, a drop of 19 seats from 2009.
