From Rae Bareli to Hyderabad and Palakkad: The anatomy of a 'safe seat'

Advocate Ram Sevak Chaudhary from Rae Bareli loves to be surrounded by people who come to seek counsel or hear his tales. “Otherwise, I slump like a used sock. Lifeless and stinky”. His favourite tale, which he loves to recount, is from over 40 summers before. “I was travelling through Delhi when we spotted a crowd near the Teen Murti Bhavan. It turned out to be farmers wishing to meet with the PM. When they learnt we were from Rae Bareli, we were ushered into the building and into the presence of the PM. When we told her we just wanted to meet her, she chided us. Why did we spend money when she comes to Rae Bareli regularly? We were put up in the Western Court, the accommodation reserved for MPs' guests, and someone was assigned to take us sightseeing. The hospitality lasted two days,” he says. Chaudhary is not alone. Many residents of the dusty town, Rae Bareli—a Congress bastion barring a brief period from 1977-80 and 1996-99—has a tale to tell about the area’s association with the Nehru-Gandhi family. This recall value builds affinity to a leader or a party which sometimes lasts several generations of voters.

There are 21 Lok Sabha constituencies that the BJP has won consecutively in the last five elections. Most of these seats are in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) comes in second as it has six seats in Odisha which it holds with an iron fist. The Congress has two in Karnataka, one each in Assam, Madhya Pradesh and Meghalaya. The CPI(M) has four seats, two each in Kerala and Tripura. The Samajwadi Party has three. As the country heads towards the 2019 general elections, THE WEEK tried to unravel, from the ground, political dynamics of a safe seat. The winning mantra for politicians is a strong mixture of personality cult, demographic advantage, heritage and innovative engagement with the electorate throughout the year. Many leaders spend generously, from the area development fund, and their own pockets, to fund education, surgeries, and houses. Many MPs make conscious efforts to visit bereaved households. Additionally, a strong organisational setup helps build bridges even when the elected leader is not a frequent visitor to the area.

Model case studies of engagement with the voters emerge from constituencies like Hyderabad, Baramati, Chhindwara and Indore. For many, Asaduddin Owaisi, undoubtedly the most recognised Muslim face in the country, is a polarising figure. He was elected to the Lok Sabha, for the first time in 2004, from Hyderabad. It was a seat his father Sultan Salahuddin Owaisi wrested from the Congress in 1984. Apart from the demographic profile of this urban constituency, which favours Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen (AIMIM), his voter outreach programmes could serve as an example to other MPs across the country. For six days a week, barring Friday, all the elected representatives of the party—MLAs, councillors and MP Owaisi—sit in the veranda of his party building, listening to complaints from the people. Anyone can walk in with a complaint or a request. No one needs an appointment. The direct contact with the people dissolves any hint of inaccessibility associated with the lawmakers.

“We have been following this system since the days of my father. People come to us with complaints related to civic issues, admission of children in schools, jobs, transfers, law and order, or even domestic troubles. We immediately issue a letter to the authority concerned in favour of the applicant, and even call up government officials on the spot,” Owaisi, sitting in his party office, told THE WEEK. Owaisi follows it up with a padyatra, three or four times a month. This is the best way to interact with people, listen to them, especially women who otherwise may not speak up. “I find this method most effective. During election time, I tell my leaders: walk around as much as possible.” But what also ensures a faithful stream of voters to his party are the number of educational institutions, hospital and cooperative banks run by the family-helmed trust. The AIMIM gives out a number of scholarships to government school students, especially from the Urdu medium. His brother, Akbaruddin Owaisi, often in controversies due to his aggressive rhetoric, runs nine institutions—Owaisi schools of excellence—which offers free education to over 13,000 students selected through a lottery system.

What is his winning mantra? “I would say it is 90 per cent hard work, but 10 per cent social media. I realised its power in 2012. Now, everything I say or do is out there instantly,” Owaisi says. Rajesh Yadav is a recent AIMIM joinee. “My ancestors are originally from Mathura in Uttar Pradesh. Owaisi came with us to meet the CM so that our caste is included in the OBC list.” AIMIM has been giving tickets to Hindus, including dalits, who won local elections.

But, when it comes to model constituencies for the pace of development, the name of Baramati and Chhindwara rank at the top. Baramati, the pocket borough of Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar, was handsomely rewarded with big projects whenever the NCP supremo was in power in the state or the Centre. His daughter, Supriya Sule represents the seat now. Baramati has served as a stellar example as to how a constituency can be maintained and developed. Constituents find easy jobs, while the family runs institutions, which include schools and colleges to address the needs of aspirational classes. Sule regularly tours villages across her constituency. She starts by visiting families that recently lost members; then she moves through a dozen odd villages along with her party leaders.

“I visit my constituency every month. I do 10-12 villages a day. Everyone is emotionally involved. We sit together, share our joys and sorrows. This has been our working style for long,” Sule said. Known as the state’s sugar belt, it has a good network of roads, electricity, and more importantly jobs which has attracted people like Ashok who travelled from a neighboring district to set up his company here. “The quality of life is better. We have work. Even the local MLA Ajit Pawar is approachable in case of need,” he says. Sharad Pawar meets people from 7.30am to 9.30am daily, wherever he is. Anyone can walk in. Appointments start from 9.30am onwards. This gives the family unparalleled confidence—they need hold only one rally in Baramati, on the last day of campaigning. They can focus on holding rallies in other parts of the state. In the current Lok Sabha, Chhindwara Congress MP Kamal Nath has the unique distinction of winning Lok Sabha elections nine times. He lost only once, during a bypoll. Kamal Nath nurtures his constituency well. His obsession in bringing industry and government projects is similar to that of Pawar in Baramati. It has some of the best central government institutes, while several industry bodies run their centres there.

Former PM Indira Gandhi had launched Kamal Nath, a close friend of Sanjay Gandhi, from this seat in 1979, saying he was her third son. He has since made Chhindwara his home, though he originally belonged to Kanpur in Uttar Pradesh. Development is visible. The small town shows the signs of emerging opulence, including good road networks. Unlike other politicians, Kamal Nath does not hide his riches. He arrives by a helicopter, which lands at his house in Shikarpur.

“He runs an effective system. He has sponsored thousands of heart surgeries of patients from this area. Serious cases are treated in Delhi. He often underplays his role though. Through his office here, people can send their complaints and requests,” said Congress leader Rajendra Mishra Rahi. Two students have already done their PhDs on Kamal Nath for his turnaround of the constituency, he added.

Unlike other Congress leaders, who till recently stayed away from overtly religious functions, Kamal Nath does not shy away from his beliefs. He has installed a 110 feet tall Hanuman idol, conducted a week-long Ramkatha by Murari Bapu, and had, in the past, invited Baba Ramdev to hold a camp there. “If the society is turning religious, he looks after their interests,” an aide said. “We train and place over 800-1000 students every year. It is a residential course, sponsored by different industries who want skilled manpower. Students have even started coming from far-off places,” an aide said.

After becoming the Madhya Pradesh state party president, Kamal Nath had challenged CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan to compare Chhindwara model of development with Vidisha, which has been the BJP leader's stronghold. Since BJP came into the scene in 1980s, it has made deep inroads, particularly in the Hindi heartland. It did well in areas dominated by the majority community. Under the current leadership, the BJP may have moved beyond the cow belt seats, but it has been unshakable there, partly due to decimation of the Congress. As one enters Vidisha, the signs of its political leanings are all too visible. Large banners, near the railway station, celebrate the cause of cows. Another, by an RSS-run school, congratulated its meritorious students. Yet another featured Hindu Yuva Vahini, founded by Yogi Adityanath. The Vahini poster congratulated its local leaders for successfully fighting for aarti in a missionary college.

A first timer visiting this dusty town might miss the fact that it had illustrious MPs, including Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Ramnath Goenka, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Sushma Swaraj. The contrast with neighbouring Bhopal, another BJP bastion and state capital, is stark, even though the distance between two cities is merely 70kms. Bhopal is developed and orderly, but Vidisha still appears to be stuck in a time wrap. Also, the chief minister had represented this parliamentary seat six times. Ironically, another VIP constituency which could well be on par with Vidisha in terms of development, and political history, is Rae Bareli. “Hindutva always has been strong in Vidisha. The Hindu Mahasabha was very active here, which was followed by Jana Sangh. As Vidhisha was part of Gwalior state, people had huge regards for Rajmata Vijayraje Scindia, who was one of the founder of Jana Sangh and BJP,” Vidisha BJP MLA Kalyan Singh Thakor said. Congress had only won twice during in the 1980s, because of the Indira wave.

Chouhan, popularly called Mamaji, had won from this Lok Sabha seat five times. Chouhan's humble style of interaction is often considered his USP. “Whenever he came, he interacted with everyone. He even remembers names,” said Sitaram Malviya, who runs a shop near what was once known as CM's bungalow. Most of the people in this town recall the benefits they received from the state government under various schemes. Chouhan later shifted to Budhni. The safe seat of Vidisha was transferred to Sushma Swaraj, who maintained good relations with Chouhan. Local residents says that though Swaraj may not have visited the constituency many times, the seat is a BJP stronghold and her position remains unassailable. Known for its historical significance, the town is nine kilometers from world famous Buddhist monument Sanchi.Vidisha, for all intents and purposes, is Chouhan's fiefdom. He is often seen as a successor to Vajpayee for his ability to win elections and pursue an inclusive politics.

In the BJP, among the current MPs, Sumitra Mahajan, Lok Sabha Speaker, had won the most Lok Sabha elections. She was elected from Indore eight times (second only to Kamal Nath's nine Lok Sabha victories). Madhya Pradesh's largest city, Indore was recently declared as the cleanest in the country. Mahajan has been instrumental in getting more projects for the city. Her supporters often compare her to the rule of Ahilyabai Holkar, the erstwhile ruler of the region from 1725 to 1795. Mahajan also describes Holkar as her role model. She donated a bronze sculpture of Ahilyabai, which was installed in the Parliament library in 2006.

“The BJP was in opposition when Sumitraji won her first elections in 1989. The city was not directly connected with rail route, and even road network was negligible. She was instrumental in getting a bypass sanctioned. Whoever was in government, her requests were never refused. Her polite and firm demeanour made her popular,” Rajesh Aggarwal, Mahajan's representative in the constituency, said. Mahajan also spends time at her office, listening to and meeting with people. She has a dedicated team which looks after specific areas like health, transport, rural and other needs of the people. The constituency richly rewarded her even when many other party MPs lost elections in 2004 and 2009. Over the years, BJP's strong organisational network, along with dedicated RSS presence, has helped her retain her seat. A taint-free tenure and acceptability within the party and opposition made her an obvious choice as speaker.

BJP patriarch L.K. Advani has won seven Lok Sabha elections, the last six from Gandhinagar, a BJP stronghold in Gujarat. Advani had already won once from Lok Sabha in 1989 from the New Delhi seat. But, when elections were held again in 1991, he decided to contest from two seats. “I was part of the discussions at that time,” recalled long time Advani associate Harin Pathak. “We decided that Advaniji should also contest from Gandhinagar, which was the epicentre of the Jana Sangh politics. He won with a huge margin from Gujarat, and a smaller margin from New Delhi. He vacated New Delhi seat, which was subsequently won by actor Rajesh Khanna,” recalled long time Advani associate Harin Pathak. Pathak had also represented neighbouring Ahmedabad Lok Sabha seat six times since 1989.

PM Narendra Modi, at that time, was an RSS paracharak. He later became a BJP leader and appeared in state politics. Advani redefined his national role with a rath yatra for Ram Mandir. Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad, which were fertile grounds for the BJP, combined with Advani's national appeal, reposed its faith in him. Modi helped Advani with his rath yatra and also his elections. The subsequent Modi's government brought development to the areas, apart from strengthening the organisational network on the ground. While Advani focused on the national politics, MLAs addressed local problems. Advani also maintains an office in the city and has been using his MPLAD funds for development activities. But, the BJP suffered a jolt in Gandhinagar as they lost the previous last assembly elections to a Congress MLA. Was this a sign of changing times? “Gandhinagar North is an urban constituency, dominated by the service class. Moreover, the Patel agitation had its impact,” Kishorbhai Babubhai Chauhan, BJP MLA from Vejalpur (part of Gandhinagar Lok Sabha consituency) said. Chauhan said BJP's roots were strong in the area.

CPI(M) MP M.B. Rajesh's Palakkad has been a left bastion since the very first general elections. Barring two times, the seat has been with the left parties. Rajesh entered the Parliament via student politics. He was the SFI district secretary, then state, and later DYFI state president. “I spent 200 days in my constituency. I try to attend social functions, even religious ones. I take all my calls. Everyday, it is over 200. I am available all the time,” Rajesh said, talking about his style of functioning. He even set an example by putting his two children in government schools. “Through my MPLAD funds, I set up a dialysis centre in the Ottappalam district hospital. Now there are 19 machines for doing dialysis, which has treated over 14,000 paitents, the largest programme in the state. Such has been the success of this programme that people have been coming forward to donate money. A newly-wed couple saved on marriage to give Rs 2 lakhs,” Rajesh recalls. He was also instrumental in setting up a cancer detection daycare centre.

Education, too, has been his focus. In the first year as MP, he funded libraries in 34 schools, and later on went to set up smart blocks in every high school. He set up sports facilities in schools and colleges, which, he says, are producing results.

If the BJP has retained maximum seats as strongholds, winning 21 seats five times in a row, Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal comes second, assiduously holding on to six seats in five elections. No other party has been able to jolt BJD’s hold in the state for years. Bhadrak MP Arjun Charan Sethi has won eight times from the constituency, the same as Sumitra Mahajan. The unassuming former school teacher attributes his success to the policies of his party and leader. Before becoming MP, the dalit leader was MLA for two times. “What I try to do is mix up with as many people as possible. I go to poor people’s houses. Pat them on their backs. It reassures them. I may not be able to give them anything more, but this gesture is what connects me with them,” Sethi says about his style of functioning. “I stay true to my word, I give what I promise,” he added. He was a Union minister during the Vajpayee government.

When the 2019 elections are fought, the BJP’s aim will be to capture one of the two seats held by the Gandhi family in Uttar Pradesh—Amethi and Rae Bareli, their sole bastions in the Hindi heartland. Both Rahul and Sonia make regular visits to their constituencies, and have even built guesthouses to give them a permanent address. In the absence of the duo, Priyanka takes care of the seats. She first arrived in 1999 to campaign for Captain Satish Sharma. Since then, she has been a regular fixture, campaigning in 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012 and 2014. In 2012, Congress had lost most of the assembly seats in the area. “The party changed its strategy after the 2012 loss,” says Congress leader Vinay Dwivedi. “Earlier, Indira brought in industries to create jobs and prosperity to the region. Then, they decided to bring more central projects so that the people would benefit even when there is no friendly government in the state.” Rae Bareli now boasts of a rail wheel factory, AIIMS, NIFT and is connected to five national highways.

Since then, the Congress has gone on to build a booth-level robust structure, which Priyanka monitors for her brother and mother. Local Congress workers and leaders say they are in awe of Priyanka as she knew how to manage people and micromanage strategy. “She is perceptive and understands politics like her grandmother,” Dwivedi said. A common refrain heard all over the city.