Will the BJP take a hit in Gujarat? Congress is betting on it

In an election that is clearly a referendum on the Narendra Modi government, any outcome from Gujarat will either boost or lower the BJP's stock at the Centre. 26 Lok Sabha seats might not be a large number, but each seat is a prestige issue for the BJP, as it will clearly reflect the popularity of the party and that of the Modi-Shah duo in their home state.

Once a laboratory of “Hindutva” and thereafter a “model state” for the BJP, where they have been ruling since 1995, Gujarat means a lot to the BJP, especially after the party lost power in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and adjoining Rajasthan. Though a leader of his stature does not require a safe seat, it isn't without reason that Shah is in the fray from Gandhinagar seat, once represented by party leaders like Atal Behari Vajpayee and L.K. Advani. His presence serves the two-fold purpose of boosting the morale of the party's rank and file, at the same time keeping a close watch on the functioning of the state government.

In 2014, under the spell of the Modi wave, the BJP swept all 26 seats. Modi's elevation as the prime minister left an open field back home; in the wake of discontent among several sections of the society, including the Patidars, the OBCs, dalits and farmers, the BJP barely managed to hold on to power and its tally in the 182-member assembly stood at 99 in the 2017 elections. The young trio of Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakor played a major role in creating an “awakening” of sorts among the electorate and was a major reflection on the BJP's performance. The party could not afford to lose hold over its citadel and there began a systematic plan to “win over” Congress MLAs. As Congress's Narendra Ravat, a youth leader from central Gujarat, said, “More than 30 MLAs of the Congress have joined the BJP between 2014 and 2019. A couple of them had court cases against them and a couple of them like Kunwarji Bavalia from Jasdan and Jawahar Chavda from Manavadar, both from Saurashtra, joined the BJP only to be made ministers 24 hours from joining. Some were rewarded with assembly tickets."

It isn't a coincidence that the lawmakers were from the regions where the Congress is expected to do well—Saurashtra, Jamnagar and north Gujarat. The latest in the list to leave Congress is [Alpesh] Thakor, and his close associate Bayad MLA Dhavalsinh Jhala. Thakor quit, alleging that he and Kshatriya Thakor Sena were being sidelined by the party. He even alleged that tickets were “sold”. Though he has claimed he is not joining the BJP, his actions have reflected sheer opportunistic approach even in the past. Before joining the Congress in 2017, BJP sources said that he had almost joined their party. Even this time, before quitting the Congress, about a month ago, he had made an attempt to join the BJP, but sources said that things did not materialise as he demanded a particular portfolio.

Attempting to seek votes on the basis of Central government's performance and once again pitching for “our Gujarati” as the prime minister, the BJP is confident to repeat its 2014 performance. The recent exit of Thakor from the Congress has made the fight all the more interesting, and the BJP might make gains in about two seats from north Gujarat. With his exit, the Congress has also lost a number of foot soldiers and booth level workers. The Congress has lacked the local leadership to bind the party's rank and file. The party heavily banked on its national president Rahul Gandhi in 2017, and the efforts showed results, though not as much the party would have wished. Several factors like Modi's graph not being the same as 2014, and anti-incumbency works for the party despite the fact that its leadership has been caught napping and has not been able to hold its flock together.

The Congress is confident of winning a few seats and stall BJP's clean sweep. The candidates have been carefully selected and the party hopes to gain Patel votes also now that Hardik Patel is in the party. In Gujarat, normally the BJP has always been ahead in announcing the candidates. It is the Congress that usually witnesses lobbying by various factions. This time, however, the nervousness was obvious. The BJP announced its Ahmedabad (East) candidate, H.S. Patel, in the wee hours of the final day to file nominations.

Former Gujarat Congress president Arjun Modhwadia claimed that the party would win a minimum of 10 seats. The reason, he said, was that his party did well even in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections that were held in the shadow of Godhra carnage and the post-Godhra riots of 2002. In 2004, the Congress won 12 seats. In 2009, they won 11. He recalled that in the 2015 local body elections, the Congress won 23 out of the 24 district panchayats, and its tally in taluka panchayats and municipal corporations also increased. He claimed that Thakor's exit from the party would not have any impact.

Congress party sources said they have placed as many as 18 seats in the A and B categories, signifying good a chance of victory. Among the seats kept are Junagadh, Amreli and Surendranagar of Saurashtra, Jamnagar; Banaskantha, Patan and Sabarkantha of north Gujarat; Anand, Chhotaudepur and Dahod of central Gujarat and tribal belt, and Bardoli and Valsad of south Gujarat.

Big names from the Congress are in the fray from these seats. Former MP Bharatsinh Solanki from Anand, former MP Tushar Chaudhary from Bardoli, former MP Somabhai Patel from Surendranagar, opposition leader Paresh Dhanani from Amreli, and senior OBC leader Jagdish Thakor from Patan. Independent MLA Jignesh Mevani's Vadgam constituency falls under Patan LS seat. Alpesh's exit might affect the fortunes of Congress candidates in Patan and Banaskantha seats.

At the state level, the Congress is banking heavily on the Patel ire, despite the state government implementing 10 per cent reservation for the upper castes who were not in any other category. Moreover, in an interview to THE WEEK a month ago, Mevani had categorically said that the dalits are not going to vote for the BJP.

The BJP's strongholds are urban pockets and seats from Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Vadodara, Surat and Rajkot. Tough fights are expected in some seats of Saurashtra, south Gujarat and tribal belt. In Bharuch, MLA Chhotu Vasava of Bharatiya Tribal Party might turn out to be a spoilsport both for the BJP and the Congress.

Sudhir Raval, an Ahmedabad-based political analyst, said that, even on a conservative note, the BJP would lose five to six seats. He observed that the BJP-led NDA initially had a clean slate, which was not the case now. “It may not be the case that people love the Congress. However, the party would benefit because of the anti-incumbency that the central government is facing,” he pointed out.

According to him, there are several traders who are afraid to talk about the implications the GST has had on their businesses. Even the demonetisation has not gone well with the masses, he said, adding that he, for one, felt that gone were the days when people would vote only emotionally. Gujarat BJP spokesperson Bharat Pandya, however, oozed confidence and claimed that the party would win all the 26 seats. “The primary issue is making a Gujarati the prime minister again. Candidates are a secondary issue,” he said. The BJP is also banking on the network of booth level workers it has. Undoubtedly, the network is far superior than the Congress' organisational structure at the grassroots. The presence of Shah, and a couple of trips of Modi, could help them regain ground where the party is weak.

Apart from the caste equations, the Congress is hoping that it will also get benefit of farmers unrest, especially in Saurashtra region. Gandhinagar is one safest seat for the BJP. However, the “josh” of Congress MLA C.J. Chavda, who is taking on Shah, is commendable. “We will have considerable lead in assembly segments of Kalol, Sanand and Gandhinagar (North). This would not change even if Modi had contested from Gandhinagar,” he said. “Patidars are with us,” Chavda said, admitting candidly as to nobody knows what happens at the last moment. Chavda was probably referring to last minute “tricks” that Modi comes up with. Even now, Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani has been saying in public meetings that the current elections are elections between India and Pakistan. Referring to questions raised by Sam Pitroda, close aide of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, Rupani said that the questions Congress leaders pose are on the same lines as Pakistan.

In Kheda, BJP turncoat Bimal Shah is hoping to get advantage of anti-incumbency in the region. “Though the BJP had won the 2014 elections by a margin of over 2 lakh votes, the lead drastically decreased if the 2017 assembly elections are considered,” he said, adding that he would also get the benefit of the goodwill that he had created while being Kheda in-charge from the BJP. Ahead of 2017 assembly elections, Shah had said that the party would celebrate if it wins 150 seats. Their juggernaut stopped at 99. Now, even he has been saying that the BJP would win all the 26 seats. He has been appealing to the masses to enable the party to win all the 26 seats so that Modi once again becomes the Prime Minister. Even if the Congress manages to win one seat, it is a plus for them. But for the BJP, even a loss of one seat would be a major hit. Modi has already played “son of the soil card” in Gujarat by saying the opposition is targeting your son. Gujarat is indeed poised for an interesting battle.