All is not quiet on the Western front!
India will be looking West with great concern as tensions between the United States and Iran escalate. Things just got trickier for India, with the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif flying in on Monday night. He is expected to meet External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on Tuesday. Zarif is hoping that India would throw its weight behind Iran in what looks like a possible (read military) conflict with the US.
The US has deployed an aircraft carrier and B-52 bombers to send a signal to Iran that it means business. Iran, characteristically, has ratcheted up tensions and refused to back down.
Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the Revolutionary Guard's air force, on Monday, referred this as an “opportunity” and a “target”, suggesting that it was a sitting duck and Iran was ready to attack. For India, this situation—with its potential to explode—only means double trouble.
A confrontation has been brewing between the US and Iran for some time now, but things have moved swiftly in the past few days. Less than a week ago, Iran informed signatories to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal that the country is no longer planning to abide by certain "voluntary commitments" made in the accord and added that it would resume enrichment of uranium beyond the accord-permitted 3.67 per cent after 60 days, if the signatory states failed to come up with a plan to protect Iran's oil and banking sectors from sanctions. Even as the EU is trying desperately to salvage the deal in Brussels, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delayed his visit to Russia to hold talks with the EU leaders on Iran. The message is clear, America wants to push Iran into a corner.
“As long it was between the US and Iran, India could have managed to confrontation,'' said Harsh Pant, director, Studies & Head Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. “However, if it takes on a regional manifestation, India's ability to leverage the situation will be limited. It does seem that the US is acting with the tacit agreement of countries in the region.”
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This regional coalition against Iran, especially backed by the US, will be difficult for India to ignore. “India has invested a lot in relations with the Saudi Arabia, the Gulf countries and Israel. In a possible confrontation, and a tacit understanding between these powers, India will have to find a way to be able to keep its new friends without offending Iran. America is also putting pressure on China, which is the largest trading partner with Iran, knowing that at the moment China might not be able to stand up so strongly for Iran,'' said Pant.
Any possible military confrontation in the area will spike the oil prices. “More than energy security for India, we will need to address oil prices,'' said former diplomat Ashok Sajjanhar. Post the election, the rising price of oil will be a major issue for the new government, he added.
Iran, however, will be hoping that India will not cut down oil imports. India, of course, has been told in no uncertain terms that Iranian oil must stop. The US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross conveyed this message to the government, and clarified that there will be no concessions.
On Monday, the possibility of a crisis pushed crude prices up. Brent crude futures were at $71.77 a barrel, up $1.15. “There is a convergence of interests between India and the US, especially with the kind of help America has given on the Masood Azhar case,'' says Sajjanhar. This new found bonhomie will go a long way in determining the Indian stance on the conflict.
The visit by Zarif at this time seems to suggest that Iran is hoping that India finds a way out of this pickle. The deal Iran has for India for oil with a 60-day credit is the best one on offer. Tehran will certainly try and get New Delhi to stick to its stand that the only sanctions that India recognises is UN imposed ones. There is no doubt that Iran will be persuading India to back its position, which will not be easy. And for now, New Delhi will need to walk a diplomatic tightrope.