Modi's foreign policy 2.0: Is 'hug diplomacy' enough to meet new challenges?

Hug diplomacy works. Twitter has been abuzz with world leaders congratulating Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his thumping win in the general elections. His 'friend Bibi', Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even tweeted in Hindi. 

However, Modi will need everything in his foreign policy arsenal as the next few months of the new government will not be smooth sailing. There is the Afghan situation, the tension in the Middle East and America's economic war with China. And Modi's ability to navigate this tricky terrain will be tested. 

The ball that Modi set rolling with his 2014 swearing-in seems to have born fruit. The informal diplomacy driven by Modi's personality, the hug diplomacy, has become a force of its own in the region.  

On Thursday afternoon, much before the results were officially announced, Sri Lanka's President Maithripala Sirisena, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and leader of opposition Mahinda Rajapaksa tweeted to congratulate Modi. In the past few months, India has been clearer with its neighbours as to what the red lines are. So far, like in the case of Maldives, India had never spelt out the no-go areas. However, this seems to be changing. A more assertive Modi with a thumping mandate means that India will continue to be more forceful in the neighbourhood. A mix of the big brother and the new kind brother will continue. 

All eyes will be on the meeting between Modi and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, which is likely to take place on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek in June. The meeting between Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj and her Pakistani counterpart S.M. Qureshi on Wednesday, on the eve of polls counting, might offer a clue. Swaraj made a passionate speech about Pulwama, but pleasantries were exchanged later. Swaraj was seen sitting with Qureshi chatting. 

Modi's Pakistan policy will be the most scrutinised. He has already established that there is a possibility of “pushing the envelope''—as security analysts like to phrase it—to create a new normal with Pakistan. One thing is clear, terrorism will dominate any talks. While there may be engagement, talks, at the moment, are unlikely to be part of the immediate agenda. 

Pakistan apart, the new government will have to walk a tightrope with friends. Modi's foreign policy in his next term will be determined by his ability to keep his friends close. There is no doubt that the ties between the US and India have improved under the NDA, but with President Trump determined to get his pound of flesh, read economic deliverables, it is no secret that America wants India to lower tariffs. The push for getting Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar designated as a global terrorist and the promise of friendship with Trump have come at a price, which was clear from the issue of Harley Davidson that came up in a phone call between “beautiful man'' Modi and the US president. 

“America’s foreign policy dynamics under Trump are very different,” Adrian Mutton, CEO of Sannam S4, who is part of the Indo-US strategic dialogue told THE WEEK. “People need to recognise that. It is purely economics.'' 

The heightened tension in the Middle East hints that India will have to negotiate with the US. The recent visit by Javad Zarif, the foreign minister of Iran, to India to solicit support is a signal that India will have to find a way out of its rather delicate situation. Chabahar port may be exempt for now, but continuing to import oil from Iran is not likely to be met with tolerance. India has been consulting with Europe—including Germany—to find an alternative, but there seems to be no happy solution to this quandary. Swaraj had deflected the issue saying the next government will take a call on importing oil from Iran based on commercial viability. But there will be more at stake than just commerce. Modi's ability to keep friendship with both—without offending the support he has in the Gulf countries—will be a real test of his statesmanship. Especially of India's independent foreign policy. 

China, however, will continue to loom large on the horizon. The current face off with Trump and the recent concession—even if it was forced in a way—over Masood Azhar will keep the South Block occupied. President Xi Jinping was one of the first few leaders to congratulate Modi on his win, even before the results were official, a signal that the Wuhan spirit is alive. With the informal summit to be held in India this year, the question will be whether this will lead to a commitment.