BIMSTEC leaders to attend Modi swearing in as India stresses 'Neighbourhood First' policy

In a masterstroke, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has ensured that he need not invite Pakistani Prime minister Imran Khan for his swearing in, even as he goes ahead and makes another international show of the event. According to the Ministry of External Affairs, the invites have been sent to the heads of all countries of the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Maritime and Economic Co-operation). The member nations, apart from India, are Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Thailand. 

“This is in line with the government's focus on its 'Neighbourhood First' policy,'' said MEA spokesperson Raveesh Kumar. In addition to BIMSTEC heads, the president of the Kyrgyz Republic, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, who is the current chair of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and the prime minister of Mauritius, Pravind Jugnauth, who was the chief guest at this year's Pravasi Bhartiya Divas, have also been invited.

During his first swearing in ceremony in 2014, Modi had extended the invitation to all members of the SAARC (South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation). BIMSTEC is basically old wine in new bottle, and the SAARC members missing from this regional group are Afghanistan, Pakistan and Maldives. India shares excellent ties at all levels with Afghanistan, and with the new government of Ibrahim Solih in place in the Maldives, India has already begun forging new and intensive ties with the island nation, one which is very strategically situated in the Indian Ocean. Modi's first overseas tour, it is being said, might be to the Maldives. Modi was the only foreign head of state or government, who was invited to Solih's swearing in last year. The two countries, therefore, are not likely to feel slighted on being left out of the May 30th party.

Modi had played a big gamble with his SAARC invite the last time. Nawaz Sharif, then Pakistan's prime minister, had finally accepted the invite and visited New Delhi, and it appeared to be the beginning of a new chapter in Indo-Pakistan relations. A tie which seemed further strengthened with Modi's impromptu Pakistan stopover on a personal invite by Sharif. The friendship, alas, was not to be for too long. Relations rapidly dipped with frequent attacks on Indian forces from across the border. Pathankot and Uri attacks left little scope for friendship, and India's retaliatory surgical strike caused the fahrenheit to plunge even further in the relationship. 

Imran Khan's regime has not begun on a friendly note and the two leaders have at best shared polite official homilies. Pakistan's initiative to start the Kartarpur corridor for Sikh pilgrims met with tepid response from India last year. And this year, the attack on security forces at Pulwama, and India's retaliatory strikes on a terrorist camp at Balakot, deep inside Pakistani territory, have left little scope for bonhomie, at least for the present. Given that Pulwama and Balakot happened during the election season, and Modi made India's military might an important agenda of his campaign, an invite to Khan would be a problem in several ways. An electorate high on Balakot would not have liked to see him hosting Khan. On the other hand, Khan, who is closer to the army than Sharif was, is more likely not to accept. Khan has gone on record to say that the border would remain tense till the elections got over, indicating rather clearly that there was domestic political mileage to be got from it.

With the invitation to the SCO representative and the Pravasi Bharatiya representative, Modi has made his foreign policy priorities clear. SCO is a regional connectivity club, its area of focus largely being Central Asia. Apart from Central Asian republics, two big countries, China and Russia, are also the members. Pakistan, incidentally, is also a member; it joined at the same time as India did. The diaspora, on the other hand, is another important handle that Modi has used to develop ties with countries across the world. Together, these invites say, neighbourhood, new associations and old links.

Ever since Modi's thumping victory on May 23, there has been speculation on the guest list—would Modi up the bar of the last function or would he go for a quieter event this time. Quiet is not really Modi's style. And with congratulations coming in even before the results were officially declared, one kept wondering what the guest list could be like. Japanese Prime minister Shinzo Abe was the first to congratulate him, would he be in the list? Or would it be Modi's “good friend” Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been re-elected Israel's prime minister only weeks ago? Netanyahu lost no time in sending over his wishes in Hindi, and also in reposting pictures of their bromance, a throwback from Modi's Israel's visit.

The guest list, however, needed to be diplomatically sound, and the 'Bay of Bengal countries' was therefore a sound decision. All these neighbouring countries, while not exactly best friends with each other, are not baying for each others' blood either. The choice also sends a big message, that India's neighbours come before global stars and powers. Anyway, the next five years will provide ample opportunity for Modi to play gracious host to a galaxy of world leaders.

Now that the speculation of the guest list is put to rest, we can begin speculating on something else. Like, what will Modi wear for the function? Is this one an evening affair, unlike 2014? Or, who all will his cabinet comprise of?