Modi's BIMSTEC outreach: What does future hold for SAARC?

There will be a SAARC-shaped elephant in the room when Prime Minister Narendra Modi takes his oath for a second term on Thursday. Modi's invitation to Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Nepal and Bhutan is a commitment to his promise that is Neighbourhood First. Then, the question arises. Is the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) finally dead?

The only two countries left out of the equation are Afghanistan and Maldives. India has a close relationship with Afghanistan and Modi wears his affection on his sleeve when it comes to Maldives—the country that will host his first international visit. The question is whether SAARC, which has so far failed to live up to its ambition, will see a revival in his term? So far, SAARC, as an idea, seems to be floundering. And Modi, who went out of the way to revive Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) in Goa in 2016, is not likely to be the knight in shining armour.

The 19^th meeting of SAARC was to be held in Islamabad last in 2016. There was, however, a widespread boycott. India led the campaign, Bangladesh followed, and Pakistan found that despite their keenness to hold the meeting, no one wanted to attend. In his first interaction after he took over as prime minister, Khan expressed hope for a revival of this idea to Indian High Commissioner Ajay Bisra. In his letter to Modi last September, Khan put his wish down. “Building on the mutual desire for peace between our two countries, I wish to propose a meeting between Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, before the informal meeting of the SAARC foreign ministers on the sidelines of the upcoming UN General Assembly in New York,” Khan wrote.

India has not responded. There were murmurs by Nepal and Sri Lanka that they might be willing to attend, but without India's tacit approval, there is likely to be no meeting. It would, however, be simplistic to believe that Modi's invitation to the BIMSTEC countries is only to isolate Pakistan. “Comparison between BIMSTEC and SAARC is not helpful," says K. Yhome, senior fellow at Observer Research Foundation's Neigbhourhood Regional Studies Initiative. “If you are comparing, it should be about experience and learning from each other. Not against each other. These comparisons don't lead anywhere."

Unlike in his previous term, Modi's BIMSTEC invitation is an indication that the region has expanded. As has his view. SAARC, as a regional grouping that was started in 1985, has so far failed to live up to its ambition, remaining a hostage to the India-Pakistan rivalry. “His invitation to the BIMSTEC nations is an indication of renewed ties and a new imagination," says Yhome.

This is not the first time that Modi has explored this format. In Goa, it was Modi who initiated a retreat. It allows Modi to reach out to India's immediate neighbourhood in a way that the engagement takes Pakistan out of the equation. Over the past five years, Modi, has chosen to create new rules of engagement. With Central Asia, there is new renewed focus. The invitation to Kazakh—which will provide India more Uranium—is also a focus on the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation). It highlights India's keenness to work in regional formats to increase engagement.

The 'it' region in terms of geo-strategic terms, this is where the global focus will be. Trade dominates the discussion. “This commitment is driven by.. the potential economic rewards of greater regional connectivity,'' notes Constantino Xavier in his paper Bridging the Bay of Bengal: Toward a Stronger BIMSTEC for Carnegie India. “Almost 300 million people, or roughly one-quarter of India's total population now live in the four coastal states adjacent to the Bay of Bengal (Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal)," he writes. The regional connectivity opens up options for trades. Also, it helps bring prosperity to the northeast. And, of course, there is China. The growing ambition of China can be tempered with better connectivity in this region.

“With shared values, histories, ways of life and destinies that are interlinked, BIMSTEC represents a common space for peace and development. For India, it is a natural platform to fulfil our key foreign policy priorities of Neighbourhood First and Act East," said Modi in June 2017 in a statement at the BIMSTEC's 20^th anniversary. Its time has come.