Triple talaq, Article 370 done; is uniform civil code next for BJP?

The perceived bonhomie between US President Donald Trump and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan and the crumbling morale of the opposition political parties were the key triggers for the Narendra Modi government to act swiftly on Jammu and Kashmir.

A big boost for Modi is that many regional parties including the Biju Janata Dal, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have welcomed the move to scrap Article 370, which gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir, and downgrade the state to a Union territory.

This will give the Central government absolute control over the Kashmir valley through its chosen lieutenant governor, as the new legislature will have limited powers. Governor Satya Pal Malik, who made the crucial recommendation for scrapping Article 370, may now be shifted to one of the larger states.

A former Army general or ex-intelligence officer may be appointed lieutenant governor to run the two Union territories of Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir.

Yet, the sense of alienation and helplessness among the people of the Kashmir valley could increase, given the extreme steps taken by the Modi government to prepare the state for its biggest shock in the last 69 years after Article 370 became part of the Constitution.

However, the people and political leadership in Kashmir knew that the BJP and its predecessor, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, had been opposed to what Syama Prasad Mookerjee, Jan Sangh's founding president, described as "a state with two prime ministers, two flags and two constitutions".

Narendra Modi himself had been a key organiser of the Kanyakumari-to-Kashmir yatra of former BJP president Murli Manohar Joshi for hoisting the national flag in Srinagar's Lal Chowk on Independence Day in 1992.

Even when the Atal Behari Vajpayee-led NDA government came to power in 1998, the BJP had agreed with its allies to keep four core issues on the back-burner for the sake of coalition parties: Scrapping of Article 370, construction of a Ram Temple in Ayodhya, Uniform Civil Code and a ban on cow slaughter. When the BJP got majority on its own in 2014, it still formed a government with allies.

The BJP was cautious on these issues as it lacked a majority in the Rajya Sabha. It opted for an uneasy coalition with the PDP in Jammu and Kashmir. Yet, there was immense pressure on the Centre as street protests and terrorist activity spiked. The government dealt with it with a heavy hand.

Relations with Pakistan too deteriorated due to the series of terrorist attacks on Indian soil, culminating in the Pulwama suicide bombing, which saw retaliation by Indian airstrikes in Pakistan.

As the PDP-BJP coalition collapsed, hardliners in the BJP led by Amit Shah got an upper hand. As Shah was pushing to scrap Article 370, global pressure mounted and regional relations soured.

US President Donald Trump, after initially isolating Pakistan, suddenly warmed up to Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan. Trump, who is keen to pull out US troops from Afghanistan, wanted a bigger role for Pakistan in the landlocked country as it had a hostile relationship with Afghanistan's western neighbour, Iran.

Imran Khan, who has strong support of Pakistani generals, liked the lifeline offered to his country, which is suffering from economic slowdown, but urged the Americans to ensure that India was kept out of the Afghanistan talks.

Khan also sought US help to make pressurise Modi to come to the negotiating table. The sudden announcement that India will not be involved in discussions on Afghanistan's future after the US pullout and Trump's claim that Modi had asked him to negotiate between India and Pakistan also forced the Indian prime minister to advance the scrapping of Article 370. On the domestic front, Shah had been working hard on engineering defections from the Congress and other opposition parties, both in Parliament and in states to weaken opposition to the government.

As many opposition parties are still in a state of shock after the drubbing in the Lok Sabha polls, the Modi government felt the ground situation could be altered in Kashmir.

Modi and Shah would get massive support outside Kashmir as the long-drawn insurgency has affected soldiers and policemen sent to the valley from all the states.

The opposition would be framed in the debate on whether it was with terrorists and separatists or with nationalist forces.

The government also intends to send a message to the Kashmiris backing separation that the old order has changed and they have to deal with a much more aggressive Central government.

The stern message was that the Centre was ready to withdraw not only the special privileges of Jammu and Kashmir, but also not hesitant to temporarily suspend freedom of movement and expression.

Its message to Pakistan is that it can no longer have the advantage of spreading terror in a state with special privileges where the politicians and officials could be easily intimidated.

The US president was presented with a fait accompli on Kashmir—India would negotiate with Pakistan from a position of strength than weakness. The Modi government is also looking for quicker results on the three other core issues of the BJP.

The Supreme Court has announced day-to-day hearing in the Ayodhya case and a judgement is expected by October. The government hopes the judgement will clear the way for a "grand Ram Temple" on the disputed site in Ayodhya.

The passage of the triple talaq law in Parliament has given more confidence to Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad to push plans for a Uniform Civil Code, as the government enjoys majority in both houses of Parliament.

The Law Commission is gathering opinion on the proposed Uniform Civil Code bill. The creation of a separate Animal Husbandry ministry at the Centre post elections has also put the cow at the centre of the government's promotion and protection policies.