Article 370: Will India-Pakistan ties recover from an all-time low?

The Indian high commission in Islamabad will no longer have a high commissioner as High Commissioner Ajay Bisaria is expected to reach India today. Bisaria was expelled from Pakistan two days ago as a mark of protest against India's decision to scrap Article 370.

While the ministry of external affairs had “urged'' Pakistan to reconsider the decision to downgrade diplomatic relations, Islamabad stood firm. Bisaria is expected to reach India by plane via Dubai with his wife and son, and families of officials in the embassy. A delegation of over ten officials from the high commission will make their way back to India.

In the past 48 hours, Pakistan has snapped the most vital people-to-people links. The Samjhauta Express was the first to be halted, and on Saturday, Pakistan has chosen to stop the Delhi-Lahore 'dosti' bus, which has always been seen as one of the resilient symbols of the people-to-people relations between the two countries. The bus service had weathered most diplomatic lows between the two countries, stopping only during the Parliament attack in 2001. Despite terror threats and financial loss—Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC), according to an RTI reply, suffered a loss of Rs 7.81 lakh between May and June 2019 on the operation of the Delhi-Lahore bus service—the bus continued to connect the two cities.

“The action taken by Pakistan is unilateral,'' said the spokesperson for the ministry of external affairs, Raveesh Kumar, at the weekly press briefing on Friday. “We have urged them to reconsider the decision. We have regretted the steps done. The steps are done to present an alarming picture of the bilateral relations. But it is not so.''

The next few days will see hectic, behind-the-scenes diplomacy to assuage the situation. Both India and Pakistan are using their envoys across the world to reach out to the world to garner support. The US Deputy Secretary of State John J. Sullivan will travel to India next week.

Alice Wells, principal deputy assistant secretary for South and Central Asian affairs, who is in Pakistan for a five-day visit, will also be travelling to India in the coming week and Kashmir is likely to feature prominently in the meetings. Especially so as Wells would have been spoken to in detail by Pakistan what the ministry of external affairs terms “rhetoric''.

This will be the first meeting between Indian officials and senior US officials after India scrapped Article 370. The US has urged “calm and restraint by all parties.'' “We want to maintain peace and stability, and we, of course, support direct dialogue between India and Pakistan on Kashmir and other issues of concern,'' the spokesperson of the US state department, Morgan Ortagus, had said recently.

While India and America share strong ties, the US had made it clear that it was not informed about India's decision to revoke Article 370 prior to announcement of the move. The clarification—which was issued by the US state department without any query and signed by Alice Wells—is a message aimed at Pakistan. With the Taliban close to giving the finishing touches to the pull-out deal with America, the US will be at pains to ensure that Pakistan stands firmly by their side. Prime Minister Imran Khan's visit to Washington certainly demonstrated President Donald Trump's keenness to get a long with Khan—a “fantastic'' fellow, as the former described him. In the past week, if nothing else, President Trump has at least come to be aware of the sensitivity of Kashmir across both the borders.

America, however, is not the only one hoping to diffuse a situation that has the potential to escalate. China, has also called for calm. Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi went to Beijing to elicit support for the Pakistan stand. So far, Beijing has chosen to be neutral, issuing a statement, asking both sides to resolve the differences. With Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar's visit to China also scheduled soon, Beijing will certainly be trying to use its influence to reduce tensions. As will Moscow, which “expects that India and Pakistan will not allow aggravation of the situation.”