A byelection to a single assembly constituency has never created this kind of buzz before in Kerala. The byelection in the Pala constituency in Kottayam district is sending ripples across the state's moribund political scene, thanks to the history and sociology of the constituency.
The bylection was necessitated after the death of K.M. Mani (popularly known as Mani sir), the leader of Kerala Congress. The election will be held on September 23.
The byelection in Pala is gathering traction mainly for two reasons. The first is the high pitched groupism within the Kerala Congress―that apparently “splits as it grows, and grows as it splits”, in Mani's own words―that is making the byelection so spicy. On one side is senior leader P.J. Joseph who had merged his faction with the Kerala Congress led by Mani a few years ago. On the other side is Jose K. Mani, son of the late Kerala Congress leader. He is currently a Rajya Sabha MP.
The fight between the two for supremacy in the party had reached such heights that it was almost on the verge of a split. While Jose K. Mani wanted his wife Nisha to contest, Joseph outright opposed the move. Jose and Nisha, according to insiders, agreed to withdraw following a promise from senior UDF leaders that she will be the official candidate in the assembly polls to be held in 2021.
Though the timely intervention by Congress leader Oommen Chandy saved it from yet another split and forced Joseph to accept the candidature of Jose Tom, an acolyte of Jose K. Mani, the differences between them are far from over.
Joseph, who has anointed himself as the chairman of the party following Mani's death, refused to give an official letter acknowledging him as the official candidate of the party. This has resulted in Tom being denied the official party symbol―the two leaves.
Irked by this, Jose K. Mani followers have started a booing campaign against Joseph, their own chairman. The first instance was the UDF convention when the chairman was booed constantly during his speech which ironically exhorted everyone to work for the victory of Tom. “I accepted Tom's candidature only because UDF insisted,” said P.J. Joseph when asked about the whole drama.
He, however, added that Tom will win.
On a rare note of symphony, Jose also said that Tom will win. “No matter what. The candidate of Kerala Congress will Pala by election this time,” said Jose K. Mani. He, hoping to cash in on the sympathy votes following the death of his father, said voters of Pala will never vote against the will of “Mani sir”.
Tom may or may not win Pala, a staunch bastion of Kerala Congress till now. But its verdict is bound to create ripples in the larger politics of the state. And here comes the larger impact of this byelection.
If Tom wins, it will certainly be a morale booster for the Congress-led UDF which had swept the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. “We will win for sure,” said Opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala.
But if he loses, which is highly improbable given the political history and religious constitution of the constituency, then it would be a great breather for the CPM-led LDF which faced a devastating verdict in the 2019 polls. “Pala is a traditional UDF seat. But surprises can happen this time,” said CPM leader and former MP M.B. Rajesh.
LDF candidate Mani C. Kappan, who has contested and lost in Pala three times before, is pulling all possible strings this time. An actor/producer in the Malayalam film industry, Kappan has high hopes of winning this time due to the infighting within the Kerala Congress.
“The voters of Pala are intelligent. They understand the dirty politics that is playing out between Jose K. Mani and others. They will make an intelligent choice this time,” said Kappan who represents NCP.
Realising that it has a slight chance this time, the LDF has pulled out all the stops and the top leaders of LDF have been deputed for the task of capturing Pala.
Making it a triangular contest, the NDA has declared N. Hari, Kottayam president of the BJP, as the candidate in Pala. He had polled 17.76 percentage votes in 2016 election shocking both the fronts.
As the day of election advances, this hilly constituency is likely to witness political drama of high decibels.