Kerala: LDF's victory in Pala a portent of things to come?

On Friday, red flags of the CPI(M) fluttered all over Pala, an unusual sight in the strongest bastion of the Kerala Congress (M). Comrades were celebrating the by-election result in which LDF candidate Mani C. Kappan created history by capturing almost the whole constituency. He defeated Jose Tom of Kerala Congress (M) by a margin of 2,943 votes.

It was the first time that the constituency selected a non-Kerala Congress candidate. The party is an integral part of right wing politics in Kerala, thanks to the conservative Christian community that has a significant presence in the constituency. The by-election was necessitated after the death of former finance minister K.M. Mani, the doyen of Kerala Congress politics. It is to be noted that Pala constituency had elected K.M. Mani in every single assembly election since its formation in 1965.

A by-election to a single assembly constituency had never before created the kind of buzz that the Pala election witnessed recently and not without any reasons. Ever since the election announcement, all eyes were on the high-range constituency as the result was expected to create ripples in the political terrain of the state. Top leaders of both the fronts—the Congress-led Kerala Congress (M) and CPI (M)-led LDF—were camping in Pala as they knew that winning the constituency was very important as the state assembly election was only two years away.

The bypoll garnered eyeballs also due to the infighting between K.M. Mani's son Jose K. Mani (a Rajya Sabha MP) and P.J. Joseph, the senior-most leader in the party for one-upmanship in the party. The fight between the two for supremacy reached a height that it was almost on the verge of a split, although breakaways were nothing new for the party. In K.M. Mani's own words, Kerala Congress is a party that "grows as it splits and splits as it grows".

The infighting within the Kerala Congress (M), however, has only worsened after Friday's verdict. While the Jose K. Mani-faction blamed Joseph for the defeat, the Joseph-group is trying to pin the blame on the "immaturity" of Jose K. Mani. "This defeat is an earned one. The immaturity of some people is the main reason for the defeat of the UDF," Joseph said accusing Mani's son. "There were many other winnable candidates. If some maturity was shown, this would not have happened," said Joseph.

After his loss, Jose Tom said the defeat was totally unexpected. "Someone back-stabbed. We would not have lost otherwise. We will give a written complaint to the UDF," Tom said.

KPCC president Mullappally Ramachandran squarely blamed the Kerala Congress leaders. "The UDF candidate would not have lost had the Kerala Congress been united," he said. He also said that the Pala defeat was a wake-up call for the UDF to be more united," he said.

The fact that the LDF candidate captured a UDF stronghold is, indeed, a great relief to the ruling dispensation, which was nearly decimated in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections. It would certainly give a breather to the CPI(M) as Kerala will be witnessing five more by-elections in the coming month.

In addition, the LDF winning a traditional UDF bastion that lies close to the Sabarimala shrine, which played a crucial role in the May general elections, comes as a relief to Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. His aggressive posturings on the entry of women into the Sabarimala shrine was blamed to be a big reason for the CPI(M) rout in the general elections. He had personally camped in Pala during the election campaign of Mani C. Kappan, an NCP candidate.

"The CM had openly declared in many conventions that the election results would be an assessment of the state government. Now, we all have the result," said A. A. Raheem, a CPI(M) leader. He said it was wrong to reduce the victory by attributing it to the Kerala Congress infighting. "Given the fact that Pala is the strongest bastion of UDF politics, it is impossible to capture such a constituency just because of infighting," he explained.

Both the fronts, however, blamed the BJP for transferring votes. Kottayam district BJP president, N. Hari, who contested in 2016 too, had then shocked both the fronts after he polled 17.76 per cent votes. However, on Friday, this figure plummeted to just 14 per cent.

"My margin would have crossed 10,000 had the BJP not sold its votes to the UDF," said Mani C. Kappan. Senior Congress leader Oommen Chandy blamed the BJP for selling votes to the LDF and pointed out the lesser number of votes it received as compared to the 2016 election.

Countering the blame, the BJP said, "Every party got lesser number of votes this time. Where has the UDF votes gone? Even the LDF got lesser votes this time. Where have their votes gone? Then, why is only BJP being blamed for transferring votes," asked BJP leader J.R. Padmakumar.

There are many who read the verdict in Pala as a harbinger of things to come. The verdict may have turned this way due to multiple factors, including the infighting within the Kerala Congress, voters' antipathy towards dynasty politics and a spirited show put up by the LDF. But what it clearly conveys to all political parties is that politics in Kerala has moved beyond the Lok Sabha election.