Sudesh Mahto: The potential kingmaker after Jharkhand election results today

Most exit polls telecast by news channels for the Jharkhand elections—the results of which will be declared today—indicated a hung assembly. In such a circumstance, Sudesh Mahto, at the helm of the AJSU Party (All Jharkhand Students Union)—a former BJP ally who has since decided to fight independently—will get to play the role of a decisive kingmaker. This time, AJSU is contesting in 52 of the 81 seats. Mahto himself is contesting from Silli assembly seat, which he had held since the 2000s, but faced defeats in the 2014 assembly polls and 2017 byelections. Mahto has kept his options open. If the exit polls bear out, the trajectory of the state's politics could depend on his decisions post-poll. 

The ABP/CVoter survey has given 35 seats to the opposition alliance of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). It has given 32 seats to the ruling BJP, five to the AJSU Party and three to the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) and six to others. Aaj Tak has given the BJP between 22 and 32 seats, and the JMM-led opppsition between 38 and 50 seats. It has predicted two to four seats for the JVM-P, three to five for the AJSU Party and four to seven for others.

Jharkhand/Bihar Hindi news channel, News-XI, has given the BJP between 30 and 35 seats. It has given the JMM between 17 and 22 seats, the Congress between nine and 12, the AJSU Party between eight and 12 seats, and the JVM-P between four and six seats. Others have been given between eight and 10 seats by the channel.

In the present assembly, the BJP has 43 members, JMM 19, Congress eight, AJSU Party three, JVM(P) two and CPI(ML) Liberation one.

This election, an alliance comprising the Congress, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)—who is projecting Hemant Soren as a chief ministerial candidate—and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) have pulled up a united face, while the BJP is struggling with partners. The Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJP)—under Chirag Paswan—had announced it would contest alone, like the AJSU Party. The BJP government, led by Raghubar Das—Jharkhand’s first non-tribal chief minister—is the first in the state’s history to complete its five-year term. The party has set a target of winning at least 65 seats. However, even in 2014, during the peak of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, the party failed to win an outright majority and had to rely on the support of the AJSU Party, which had five MLAs. In 2009, the BJP had tied up with the JMM to form the government with Shibu Soren as chief minister and Das as his deputy. The JMM now leads the opposition in the state.

Mahto, a popular and modern politician—vibrant in his rhetoric—can often be seen, as media reports have claimed, on jogs in the capital city of Ranchi. With a political slogan of Gaanv ki Sarkar (a government from the villages), Mahto—who had made his mark in the state since the first JVM(P) Babulal Marandi-led government after the Jharkhand formation in the 2000s—had placed his focus on the local issues afflicting the state, away from Article 370 abrogation, NRC, CAA and others. Said Mahto to THE WEEK, “In the states, you cannot go to the public raising issues like Ram temple or Article 370. You should concentrate on your contribution to the states in the last five years, ranging from electricity to road to jobs creation,” he said. This move could well hit the political bull's eye. According to a report in the ABPlive, the IANS-CVoter-ABP News survey on Jharkhand polls had found that unemployment and business opportunities were major issues for the state's voters, and anti-incumbency could well be a reality. According to the report, “26 per cent found the BJP-led government responsible for the issues in the state, but at the same time 36.7 per cent felt it was only the BJP that can solve them. A majority (53.4 per cent) of the respondents wanted to see a different CM in the state.”

"People of Jharkhand are more concerned about its local issues rather than fancy issues of Ram Temple or abrogation of Article 370. Development is completely stuck in the last five years of BJP government in the state," Marandi, former chief minister and JVM(P) president, told the WEEK.

The results of the Maharashtra and Haryana polls had prompted the BJP to try and recalibrate its poll strategy. The party had focused on nationalistic issues such as Article 370 and National Register of Citizens in the previously mentioned state elections. This time around, the campaign returned to the foreground state-level issues and livelihood matters, with nationalism sprinkled in.

Mahto has considerable support among the numerically strong Kurmi caste, and increasing OBC reservations are an important part of his platform. While the BJP has promised 33 per cent reservation for women in government jobs, Congress, AJSU are JMM are promising to increase reservation in jobs for Other Backward Castes to 27 per cent from the existing 14 per cent.

Mahto, speaking to THE WEEK, defended the decision to go solo in the elections, citing ideological differences with the BJP. "In 2014, we joined the BJP only to give a stable government for the full five-year tenure. But, in the last five years, we have seen that issues related to people of Jharkhand have taken a back seat. Moreover, efforts were made to tweak land laws to snatch land from the tribals. And, despite being part of the government, we had to oppose the state government's move. For the last 19 years, we have been supporting the BJP," he said. Seat-sharing was one obstacle. "Besides seat-sharing, we had differences over having a common agenda for people of Jharkhand. We wanted to contest in 17 constituencies where we have strong ground support. And we were confident of wining at least 15 of the 17 seats. But, it seems that the BJP state leadership did not have confidence in us," he said. The BJP were reportedly unwilling to allot more than 11 seats for the AJSU Party. 

-Inputs from PTI, Pradip Sagar and Soni Mishra