The Kamal Nath-led Congress government in Madhya Pradesh was left tottering on the brink of collapse as the Supreme Court on Thursday directed a floor test by 5.00 pm on March 20, less than 24 hours from passing of the order.
The Supreme Court has directed a floor test by raising of hands and also for the process to be videographed and also live telecast. It has directed that the process should be conducted in a peaceful manner and that if the 16 Congress MLAs in Bengaluru (who have sent resignations) want to attend the proceedings, the DGPs of Karnataka and MP should provide them with security.
The directions came on a petition filed by ex-chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and nine others for an immediate floor test in MP Assembly so that the Kamal Nath government could prove its majority.
Kamal Nath government's majority came into question following the resignations of 22 Congress MLAs, including six ministers of the Scindia camp, right after Scindia resigned from Congress and joined BJP a day later. Though the resignation of 16 out of 22 MLAs has not been accepted, they have refused to participate in Assembly proceedings, thus pushing the Congress government to the brink of collapse in case of a floor test.
BJP welcomes SC order
While the BJP welcomed the Supreme Court ruling joyously and said that Kamal Nath government was bound to fail the floor test, Congress leaders still exuded confidence that they had the required numbers and were ready for the floor test as ordered.
Narendra Saluja, the media coordinator of chief minister and MP Congress Committee chief Kamal Nath, however, told THE WEEK that they do not yet have the copy of the order of the Supreme Court. “Our legal experts will study the details, especially the clause regarding the 16 MLAs confined in Bengaluru, and then take a decision. We honour the direction of the Supreme Court and are bound to implement it, but we will also look into legal options like filing of a review petition. The decision will be taken after legal experts study the order,” he said.
BJP leader and ex-chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said that they welcome the order of Supreme Court with bowed heads. “We have the blessings of crores of people of Madhya Pradesh. Congress government will be defeated in floor test tomorrow and way will be paved for the formation of a new government. Everything will become clear tomorrow,” Chouhan told media persons.
Pubic relations and legal affairs minister P.C. Sharma said that the government had the numbers. A meeting of the Congress legislature party was scheduled later in the evening and the decision for a future course of action will be taken there. Higher education minister Jitu Patwari said that the Congress government had, has and will have the numbers to prove majority in the house.
Tough scenario for Kamal Nath government
Reacting to the order, Kamal Nath tweeted, "We will study the Supreme Court order and all its aspects. We will talk to our legal experts, seek their advice and take decision on that basis."
However, the apparent confidence shown by the Congress ministers does not hold much water.
The Congress still technically has 108 members in the 222 member house (two seats vacant due to death of members and six due to resignations) and also the support of four independents, one SP and two BSP MLAs who haven't yet spoken of withdrawal of support. Thus there tally is 115, which is three over the majority mark of 112.
However, the fact that the 16 Congress MLAs of Scindia camp who have been staying confined at a resort in Bengaluru since March 9 might not participate in the floor test makes the collapse of Kamal Nath government look imminent.
If these members remain absent, the strength of the house will be reduced to 206 and the majority mark with come down to 104. The BJP that has 107 members had a clear advantage then. The party had paraded 106 MLAs before the governor on March 16, one member Narayan Tripathi remaining absent. Without the 16 MLAs, the Congres tally will come down to 91 (minus the Speaker) and even with seven supporting members (independent, SP and BSP), the tally will only go up to 98. This will be six short of the majority mark.
And the 16 MLAs will mostly likely be absent given the current scenario. Since March 10, when they sent their resignations through e-mail and hard copies through BJP leaders to the Speaker and governor, the 16 MLAs (and six ex-ministers) have remained away from public interaction most of the time, save for a press conference in Bengaluru and release of videos and letters where they have said repeatedly that they stand by their resignations and do not want to interact with Congress leaders. They also repeatedly expressed fear for their security and gave that as a reason not to come back to Bhopal. In the Supreme Court too, their lawyer expressed the unwillingness of these MLAs to come to Bhopal to appear before the Speaker or even to attend the Assembly proceedings.
“As of now, it really is a grim situation for Kamal Nath government. There can only be two scenarios now. That the 16 MLAs attend assembly proceedings and some vote in favour of government or Kamal Nath springs a surprise on floor of the house by getting some members of BJP to cross vote. But both scenarios are very unlikely and therefore the government is facing a tough situation. BJP members are not easy to break especially when the party is in an advantageous position,” senior political author and commentator Rasheed Kidwai said while talking to THE WEEK.
Political commentator Manish Dixit said that in the most likely scene, Congress government will collapse, after which BJP will stake claim to form the government, following which they will get a chance from the governor and to prove their majority in the house later.
