No bullets fired; but tensions escalate as Chinese transgressions continue in LAC

The summer just got hotter in India's largest cold desert, Ladakh, with tension between Indian and Chinese troops escalating.

China's military presence in the area has been growing in the past two weeks. According to estimates, 1,200-1,500 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers are in a standoff with their Indian counterparts in Pangong Tso lake area and Galwan Valley along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh. No bullet has been fired as yet, but there is no sign of de-escalation either.

The Chinese army has moved three to four kilometres into the Indian territory. China, however, has accused India of illegally constructing defence facilities across the border into Chinese territory in the Galwan Valley region.

China has been trying to make its presence felt in the areas militarily for the past few years. The defence ministry, in a response to a question in Parliament in November 2019, noted that incursions had been on theincrease in the region. There were 273 cases of incursions along the LAC in 2016, 426 in 2017 and 326 in 2018.

While Indo-China border skirmishes are not new, the current crisis brings back memories of the Doklam standoff in 2017. China, experts believe, is doing more than just trying to change the boundary. “China has become more assertive,’’ said former ambassador P. Stodan.

The origins of the current face-off seem to lie in India’s decision to make Ladakh a union territory. China had protested against the move, and had even raised the issue in the United Nations Security Council. Referring to the move as “unacceptable’’, China had urged New Delhi to avoid “unilateral actions” in Jammu and Kashmir.

What added to the complication is the 'P' factor. “What was a bilateral issue, now has another factor: Pakistan,’’ said Stodan. Home Minister Amit Shah’s statement in Parliament on August 6, where he made it clear that PoK and Aksai Chin were firmly part of India, inflamed the Chinese further. “When I talk about Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Aksai Chin are included in it,’’ the home minister had then said.

China, which has been occupying Aksai Chin since 1950, is unwilling to give up its claim. The added dimension of Pakistan in the India-China dispute makes matters more complex.

It is no secret that Pakistan is China’s all-weather friend. India, recently, reemphasized its stance after Pakistan’s Supreme Court order which allowed the Pakistan government to hold polls in the region of Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan-occupied Kashmi.“The Government of Pakistan or its judiciary has no locus standi on territories illegally and forcibly occupied by it. India completely rejects such actions and continued attempts to bring material changes in Pakistan-occupied areas of the Indian territory of Jammu & Kashmir. Instead, Pakistan should immediately vacate all areas under its illegal occupation,” the MEA had said in a statement.

Soon after Indian Met Department started showing the weather for Gilgit-Baltistan, China chose to make an aggressive move.

With a considerable chunk of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passing through this area—a move India has been protesting for a while—China has chosen to up the ante. “Raising tensions on the border is Beijing's way of telling New Delhi to rein in its ambition,'' wrote Harsh V. Pant, director, Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation. “It would be a mistake for India to think that by giving into Chinese aggression it would be able to mitigate tensions with China. Chinese belligerence towards India is a function of its own global ambitions and domestic insecurities.”

China has been facing a backlash over the COVID-19 pandemic. This has resulted in military adventurism in the South China Sea, more aggressive stance against protesters in Hong Kong in the last few days, and increasing attempt by China to use its economic might to get countries to fall in line. India too, has chosen to adapt to the new circumstances. Two BJP leaders attended the virtual swearing in of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen—which China protested strongly, dubbing it as “wrong’’. India also supported Australia’s demand for an independent inquiry into the origins of coronavirus—a move that China would be less than pleased about.