Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s short tweet—‘megha re barso’ (rain down clouds)—on Sunday probably is a good indicator of worrying rainfall situation in the state.
Considerably below par rainfall during the month of July has rendered the state rain deficient mid-way through the rainy season, totally nullifying the excess situation of June. So much so that 20 out of 51 districts in the state (according to meteorological records) are staring at drought situation, having received between 20 per cent to 41 per cent deficient rainfall up to August 2 (from June 1), data released by the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) at Bhopal showed.
Rainy season in India, buoyed by the southwest monsoon, is of four-month duration officially— from June to September. Of these, two months are gone by, and Madhya Pradesh, an agriculture-based economy, is certainly not in a very comfortable situation.
July is one of the most important months for the state as far as agriculture is concerned with much of sowing and early processes of Kharif crops like paddy, soybean, maize and others happening during the month. Poor rainfall in this month adversely impacts agriculture.
As on August 2, the state is experiencing 14 per cent shortfall of rains, having received 389.6mm overall rains as against the expected 454.5mm since June 1. The lack of good rainfall in July is evident by the fact that till June 30, the state had received 70 per cent excess rainfall with monsoon arriving on time and remaining quite vigorous through the month.
In many districts, there was hardly any rainfall for entire duration of July. A total of 20 districts in the state, including nine of the 20 districts in eastern MP meteorological sub-division and 11 districts out of 31 in western MP sub-division, are facing rain deficiency of between 19 and 41 per cent, the RMC data showed.
Up to 19 per cent rain excess or deficiency is considered normal meteorologically.
However, if this technological aspect is set aside, only 15 districts out of 51 in the state have received rainfall over the average mark up to now. This means that 36 districts have a shortfall of rain as of now and the main reason is a dry July.
For example, Bhopal district received as much as 416.3mm of rainfall during the month of June against the expected rain of 119.5mm and was therefore at 248 per cent excess. But since July 1, Bhopal has received mere 111.8mm of rain against the expected rain of 360.8 mm – less than one-third. So while Bhopal still shows an excess of 10 per cent rainfall on August 2, much of this rain was received in June, and July has gone almost dry.
Similarly, Indore district received 202.8mm rainfall against expected rain of 111.4 in the month of June—an excess of 77 per cent. But since July 1, only 159.4mm of rain was received against 272.0mm of expected rain – a shortfall of about 42 per cent.
Overall, Madhya Pradesh received 205.6mm of rain in June against expected figure of 120.9mm – an excess of 70 per cent. But from July 1, only 184mm rain has been received against expected rain of 323.6mm – a shortfall of about 53 per cent. The excess rain in June was thus nullified in July and the state has an overall shortfall of 14 per cent now.
Phase of good rain expected after August 4: Met office
The RMC has predicted that Madhya Pradesh might receive good showers for a few days after August 4, due to the impact of the low pressure being formed in Bay of Bengal. The main impact of this weather system is likely from around August 6, public relations officer of RMC, G.D. Mishra, told THE WEEK. He added that the poor rainfall in the month of July could be attributed to failure of development of good weather systems during the month.
Major rain-deficient districts
Hoshangabad – 41 per cent
Damoh – 40 per cent
Balaghat – 39 per cent
Mandsaur – 38 per cent
Tikamgarh – 37 per cent
Shivpuri – 36 per cent
Jabalpur, Chhatarpur – 35 per cent
Alirajpur – 30 per cent