Even as security forces are trying hard to maintain the ceasefire with the biggest Naga insurgent outfit, NSCN(IM), New Delhi is busy posting new officers to the critical posts of chairman of the Ceasefire Monitoring Group and the Naga interlocutor to help find a final solution to the vexed Naga insurgency problem.
Lt Gen Shokin Chauhan, the incumbent CFMG chairman, completes his tenure on August 31 and it is learnt that the Union home ministry is looking for his replacement. It is also learnt that the government may appoint a new interlocutor to hold peace talks with the Naga insurgent outfits after R.N. Ravi took over as governor of Nagaland.
Presently, Ravi is taking care of both responsibilities and despite an assurance for an early solution, the peace talks and ceasefire appear to have hit a rough patch where the NSCN(IM) recently warned that “the situation will certainly go out of control if the government does not take corrective measures in the true spirit of the ongoing political dialogue with the NSCN”.
Chauhan was sent to Kohima in August 2018, replacing D.K. Pathak who was highly respected, and had a good understanding with the NSCN(IM) cadres as well as other Naga outfits. Lt Gen Chauhan also came with the hope and promise of not only ensuring the implementation of the agreed ceasefire ground rules between the Centre and insurgent outfits like the NSCN(IM), GPRN/NSCN and NSCN-R, but also act as a bridge between New Delhi and the Naga outfits to convey concerns and create trust that can result in a breakthrough in the status-quo in Nagaland.
However, Chauhan, like his predecessors, is learnt to have been limited in his role with no power to deliver in the matters raised by the insurgent groups, that were conveyed by him to the home ministry. The recent developments of interlocutor Ravi promising an early solution and multiple security forces and agencies working at cross-purposes—with NIA conducting raids on top leaders for terror financing; Assam Rifles engaging in counter insurgency operations killing NSCN(IM) cadres and sealing their offices—resulted in the outfit questioning the government's sincerity in reaching a final peace settlement.
The issue of whether the ceasefire with the Naga insurgent groups was only on paper and whether their activities were still going on, not only became a matter of concern for Chauhan but also raised alarm in New Delhi when Nagaland governor Ravi shot off letters to the chief minister saying that the outfit was indulging in extortion activities openly and law and order was a huge problem in the state. This invited huge criticism from the insurgent groups which said that it is levying taxes and not indulging in extortion.
The failure of the peace talks was slowly becoming evident as the government completed five years of the signing of the framework agreement with the NSCN(IM) on August 3.
Clearly, Ravi has not been able to deliver on the promises made on August 3, 2015, in the Framework Agreement, which said that it recognised, among other things, the need of ending violent confrontation and recognised the sovereign right of the Naga people and peaceful co-existence of the two entities through the sharing of the sovereign power.
Neither peaceful co-existence nor shared sovereignty has seen the light of the day in Nagaland. But what will be arriving soon in Kohima, will be another officer in the office of CFMG and the likely posting of a new interlocutor sent by New Delhi who will once again try to fulfil the promise of bringing everlasting peace in Nagaland.
The Union home ministry, which will take over the responsibility of monitoring the ceasefire directly after August 31 since it acts as the liaison office of the CFMG, is going to have its hands full till such time a new chairman is appointed. It also remains to be seen who will replace Ravi as interlocutor once the government makes up its mind on a fresh face. The home ministry and intelligence agencies are, meanwhile, aware that there is restiveness in the Naga insurgent groups towards the seeming inactivity on the part of the Union government on peace talks even as it continues to send its representatives to Kohima.
