The Bharatiya Janata Party has promised a better deal than the one offered by grand alliance's chief ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav. As lack of employment has become an issue in Bihar elections, the saffron party has promised to create 19 lakh jobs against Yadav's promise of 10 lakh.
This has brought a new dynamic in the state's election scenario. The BJP's counter offer to create more jobs is aimed at saving the party from the anti-incumbency that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) is facing after his 15 years rule.
Despite the anti-incumbency, the BJP needs Nitish to become the single largest party in the state. Nitish has his own dedicated vote bank of Kurmis, Keoris and women voters, which when transferred to BJP's kitty—which already has a traditional vote bank of upper castes—is likely to help the saffron party in the 121 seats it is contesting (eleven of these seats have been given to Mukesh Sahani-led VIP).
The elections will decide the future of Nitish who already had the longest stint as state chief minister. He is the tallest leader in this election as RJD veteran Lalu Prasad Yadav is not physically present. The BJP's vote share has risen steadily over the years and during the 2015 elections, the party had the highest vote share of 24.5 per cent. At that time, the party had contested separately from the JD(U) which got 16.8 per cent vote share in alliance with the RJD. The BJP had won 27 seats while the JD(U) 71.
Bihar's politics is also about the alliances different parties have as none can form government own its own. They need crucial combination of castes and a narrative to capture people's imagination. So, the BJP, in the absence of a strong face, needs Nitish to win elections and form government.
The BJP's promise of free of cost vaccination for coronavirus and creating an IT hub in the state for job creation is to fill the gap which Nitish’s tenure may have in these years.
The JD(U) had promised to start the second phase of the seven resolves, which the government had completed in the current tenure. Bringing water to households is one of the big promises along with doubling monetary sops for girl students—Rs 25,000 for those completing class 12, and Rs 50,000 for those completing graduation.
At the moment, both the JD(U) and the (BJP) are sticking together. LJP chief Chirag Paswan's political manoeuvring has certainly confused the BJP voters in the state. The BJP leaders have asserted that even in case of the JD(U) winning less seats, Nitish will remain the CM. But Nitish's bargaining power will be much less if the difference of seats is huge between the two parties.
During the 2015 elections, when the RJD and the JD(U) contested on equal number of seats, the latter had got 71 seats, while Lalu-led party 80. Nitish Kumar became the CM, while Lalu got deputy CM post and cabinet berth for his two sons.
Nitish is among the last of the socialist era politicians in the country as Ram Vilas Paswan and Lalu are no longer on the scene. The assembly elections will be a referendum on his governance.