The year 2014 holds a special place in Telangana as the state officially came into being after a long struggle. The year is also significant, politically, as it was the last time the state had a formidable opposition in the state Assembly.
In the general elections held in 2014, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) won 63 seats to come to power, while the Congress won 21 seats to get the status of main opposition party in the 119-member Assembly. In the next two years, seven legislators from the grand old party defected to the ruling TRS party. During the same period, a Congress MP also moved to the TRS leaving the opposition party with just one MP. Dozens of local body members, corporators and grassroots leaders also switched sides deserting the party that was in power for 10 years and also took credit for the creation of a Telangana state.
In the second term of the TRS rule, the defections only fast-tracked. In the assembly elections held in 2018, the TRS won 88 seats while the Congress won 19. In less than a year, 12 MLAs from the Congress not only joined the TRS but also sought merger with the TRS as they constituted two-thirds of the Congress Legislature Party (CLP). Currently, the Congress is left with just six members in the assembly. In the last 6 years, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Left parties too found themselves helpless as their house crumbled and their elected representatives popped up in the TRS camp.
While the TRS, under K. Chandrashekar Rao, could systematically dismantle the Congress and other major opposition parties, the BJP remained relatively untouched. In the last two terms, none of the half a dozen MLAs or the MPs of the BJP got into the ‘pink car’. The two parties shared a common goal and a common enemy until ‘Mission Congress’ was accomplished. In the process of turning the Congress into a weak entity, the TRS seems to have made room for the growth of a potent and aggressive challenger, the BJP, which is now staring at it’s face.
Dubbaka constituency is in the backyard of Chief Minister Chandrashekar Rao’s own constituency, Gajwel and the entire belt in the district are seen as a home ground of the TRS supremo and his family. In the last 10 years, the BJP could best secure a third place in all the assembly polls. Located in north Telangana, Dubbaka and its inhabitants were known to be under the influence of extreme Left movement. Solipeta Ramalinga Reddy, who served as MLA of Dubbaka till his death in August, was believed to be a sympathiser of the Maoist movement, before his entry into politics.
However, in the latest byelection, winds of change began to blow. The youth in large numbers held the saffron flag even as the ruling party got a taste of the new avatar of the BJP.
Before the polling day, the BJP cadre stormed into the hotel room of a ruling party MLA to check for any material that can influence the voters resulting in fisticuffs and kicks. Elsewhere, young BJP supporters turned vigilantes on streets to prevent any foul play by the ruling party on the night before the polls again leading to physical fights and injuries. On different occasions, the BJP cadre entered into a confrontation with the police.
The BJP's aggressive campaign bore the hallmark of party's state president Bandi Sanjay, who took over the reigns of the party early this year. A member of parliament, Sanjay is known for his fighting spirit and commitment to Hindutva ideology. He rose through the ranks, from a student leader to a municipal counsellor and then to an MP. In the midst of the campaign, there was an emotional flare-up as Sanjay got on to the streets to protest against alleged state machinery misuse and was met with forcible detention by police. Alleging assault, he locked himself up in his house and continued his protest. This led to a BJP supporter committing suicide in support of Sanjay outside the party headquarters in Hyderabad. BJP candidate Raghunandan Rao, a journalist-turned-lawyer, was seen with a bandaged arm during the campaign period. By constantly levying allegations of phone tapping and harassment by the ruling party through cash seizures amounting to more than Rs 1.5 crores, the BJP could garner sympathy and attention.
The pitched battle did not end even till the day of polling. A fake social media post went viral hours before the polling started, stunning the Congress camp. As per the post, the Congress candidate was joining back the TRS. Srinivas Reddy, the Congress candidate left the ruling party just days before the nomination process started and earned a ticket. The Congress went on a damage control mode immediately and a police complaint was lodged.
The result day turned tense as both the BJP and the TRS dramatically grabbed leads till the last round. In the end, Raghunandan Rao was declared the winner with a victory margin of just over 1,000 votes or 0.6 per cent. He defeated TRS candidate S. Sujatha, wife of former MLA Ramalinga Reddy. The Congress candidate, Srinivasa Reddy, came a distant third.
Out of the total 1.64 lakhs votes counted, the BJP got 63,352 while the TRS 62,272. The votes polled in favour of the Congress was 22,196. When compared to the last election, the BJP’s vote share shot up by 25 per cent while that of the TRS fell by more than 15 per cent. The TRS conceded defeat and said it will introspect on what led to the electoral setback.
As far as the Congress is concerned, the lack of trust on the party at ground level is glaring. Owing to the repeated political migrations, there is an overwhelming feeling among the voters and even the cadre that at some point their leaders might abandon them and move to the TRS, as it has been happening for half a decade. The youth played a key role in Dubbaka elections and for them, the BJP seems to be a better opposition party than the Congress. Without undermining the attraction of Modi and Hindutva factors, the local youth at village level found the BJP to be an emerging platform for anti-establishment voice, where they can display their fighting abilities and also stay politically relevant, not bothering about the fact that some of their own relatives held posts in the TRS. It was also felt that the BJP being in power at the Centre also added to their confidence. Similar trend was observed in 2019 general elections in at least three out of the four parliament seats won by the BJP in Telangana where youngsters played a major role.
In the shrinking opposition space in Telangana, the BJP is expanding its footprint and the rise of aggressive faces within the party is only expediting the process. The brand of soft Hindutva and the diplomatic politics practised by the old guard of the BJP seems to have gone out of the window. State unit president Bandi Sanjay, MP D. Aravind and MLA-elect Raghunandan have emerged the faces of the BJP in this election and they are bound by aggression and willingness to take on the CM and his family and also to take fights to the streets.
If pre-Dubbaka was all about the BJP aiming to be a replacement to the Congress, the post-election scenario is about BJP turning a challenger to the TRS.
The next battle between the two parties will be fought on the streets of Hyderabad as the BJP has set its eyes on Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) elections slated to be held early next year. The BJP will try to leverage the TRS-MIM friendship and also reactivate existing support base in certain pockets, mainly where there is a concentration of north Indian settlers, to make a splash in Hyderabad.
“From now on we are going to win every election, including 2023,” declared Bandi Sanjay right after the Dubbaka win.
