A month into the Ukraine crisis, India is beginning to feel the heat. India has called for “immediate cessation of violence’’ in a joint statement issued with Japan, but has refrained from taking a stand against Russia.
On Monday, US President Joe Biden spoke plainly, referring to India’s position on Ukraine as “somewhat shaky’’. Both Australia and Japan, who make up Quad along with India and Japan, have strongly condemned Russian aggression, Biden had pointed out.
It is no secret that America is less than happy with India’s position on Russia and has been urging India to move away from its dependency on the country. The Ukraine crisis has intensified the differences between India and US on the issue of Russia. In an interview to NDTV, Victoria Nuland, the deputy secretary of state on a visit to India, echoed Biden's stance. “Democracies now really need to stand together and evolve their position vis-a-vis Russia because of the choices Putin has made,” she said.
The Russian invasion united Europe against Russia, aligned Europe with America and pushed Russia and China closer together. America is not the only partner pushing India to take a stand. EU ambassadors in the national capital have also urged South Block to take a stand, according to reports.
Bruno Macaes, a Portuguese politician who served as the secretary of state for European affairs for Portugal, was in India to attend the Jaipur Literature Festival last week. In an exclusive interview to THE WEEK, Macaes emphasised the need for India to take a stand. “A country like India cannot be indifferent. It is a role of a great power.”
Excerpts from the interview:
You have urged India to take a stand on Ukraine. How do you view India's position?
It (India’s position) is being met with great surprise in Europe. It is a very emotional issue here and people are surprised and I might say, in some cases disappointed with India's position. To put it briefly, we expect India to take a stand on some fundamental principles of international relations—the territorial integrity, respect for borders. If India in the past has criticised other countries for not respecting its borders, we expect the same position in this case. There was a level of disappointment. There was also a sense that we were working with India, a fellow democracy on various issues, including China and we find ourselves on opposite sides here.
India's position has been at best, neutral, at worst, more aligned with Russia. In the beginning, clearly, aligned with Russia but has been slowly sliding into some kind of neutrality. Neutrality is also a problem, because this is such a huge international crisis. I think, Indian commentators and policymakers, at the beginning, thought it was a regional issue. It is time to realise it is a global issue that has impact on global monetary system and trade. It is not an issue on which the fourth largest economy in the world, a great big power like India, can stay removed, aloof, indifferent. Whatever the stand is, you have to take a stand to be involved. In Europe, there is a sense of disappointment, but there is also a certain irrelevance of India. We discuss UAE's position; China, Japan and India has been out of these discussions. I actually, tell my Indian friends, it is not that we want you to have a specific position. We want you to be more involved.
How do you see India not taking a stand play out in the EU India relations?
I think it will have a very negative impact. This position can seem very natural for Indians but it has costs. I will give you an example. India is very interested in a free trade agreement with EU and has been pushing it for a long time. I think, it is fair to say, that India is more interested than the EU. But slowly, in the past few years, the EU has become interested. In part, because we are more aware of China's threats to the world economy, China become too dominant and perhaps, we need to reach out to India and even consider a FTA. You have to have a FTA with the EU as a whole. Every country has to be in favour. Countries in the frontline of this crisis, like Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Latvia, Estonia, are going to remember India's position.
So, it is entirely possible that the FTA between EU and India will become impossible because these countries will make it clear that they will veto it. They will no longer regard India as a privileged partner. It is not the position of Portugal, let me make it clear. But it will be the position of other countries.
India, in the past, has taken a similar stand on Crimea. Why is it different on Ukraine? Is it because President Vladamir Putin is getting bolder? Is it NATO?
I think there is a misunderstanding. Many people, not just Indians, believe that this conflict is about NATO and it is a clash between the US and Russia and the West and perhaps, overcoming Western hegemony and creating a more balanced world, more multipolar world, which is an old Indian project. This crisis is interpreted in terms of that project. I think many people in India started to change their minds because they realised that what is happening is not a re-balancing of world power. It is a brutal world targeting civilians. It serves no purpose in re-balancing the power. But it does serve the purpose of eliminating Ukraine and its nationhood.
There is a very popular opinion in India that re-balancing the world order is positive and if that was what the war is about, Indians would be in favour. I think as more and more Indians realise that the war is actually about eliminating Ukraine as a country, their position is starting to shift. That is not something Indian public opinion can support.
What do you feel about the backlash you faced when you said on Twitter about India needing to taking a stand and call out Russia?
It is always a pleasure to be in India. I am in love with India for many reasons. I am in love with the food, the landscape and the history and the heritage, but I am also in love with the politics, which is more unusual. I love it because it is very intense and there are so many fundamental issues at stake. It is one of the reasons I wanted to write a book on politics.
It is true and let me say this as a comment that I am offering, it is not easy for a foreigner to walk into these discussions. I find it easier in China. Chinese commentators and Chinese social media which is also powerful, is censored but also powerful, seem to be kind of interested to have foreigners discuss China because it raises the profile of China. Part of China's rise in the past few years is partly economic and partly, this soft power that came out of China—so many books about it, so much attention from the media that China became this image of prestige.
I feel now, a very cautious suggestion, that India will have a lot to gain if you also welcome this attention from the rest of the world because it is helping for India's rise that people are interested in India. But the reaction you see sometimes, not from everyone, is ‘that you are a foreigner and you should keep quiet’. I have got that reaction from some people. I don't think it is good for India. The way you are going to become a superpower is in being talked up, in being discussed and this will increase India's profile in the global discussion.
You have written about China and about Belt and Road. How do you see India in this and how does EU view the project?
We had started to become very suspicious about it. Even antagonist. In the last two three years, there has been a big change in the EU in terms of China that brought India and Europe together. It is possible now that will be reversed again. In the sense that we regard Russia as the main threat and we can't have two conflicts at the same time. So, maybe equations with China will warm up again a little bit. Again, that is not good news for EU-India relations.
Overall, this crisis seem to impact Indian interests negatively in all kinds of ways, which is another reason why I think India should be more active.
In what ways?
It harms EU-India relationship. It boosts China. China, now has an opportunity to have great control over Russian economy. It creates great difficulty, in my view, for Russia and India relations. You can be as warm as you want to Russia but if Russia becomes weaker, if Russia has no access to technology, if Russia has no access to semi-conductors to build its weapons, then, the fact that India is dependent on Russian weapons becomes a real problem. So, in all kinds of ways, India is being impacted by this crisis and it all seems negative.
Also, if Russia is more dependent on China
There is also the question of energy. China will now have access to very cheap Russian energy because Russian energy is not being sold to the West. It is great advantage China has. Perhaps, they will be able to avoid inflation and the West will not. Perhaps, India will not either because India does not have the infrastructure built to have access to Russian energy and China already has. So, you can now have even another comparative disadvantage in its competition with China. India will pay higher energy costs than China. It is another impact the crisis is having on India.
