On the last days of campaigning for Kerala's Thrikkakkara bypolls, an autorickshaw, adorned with the Congress flags and fitted with loudspeakers, roamed the streets of Vyttila division of the constituency, playing an evergreen Malayalam film song 'Chandrakalabham Charthiyunarum Theeram'. The song, which was from the 1975 film Kottaram Vilkkanundu, was one of the favourite songs of late Thrikkakara MLA P.T. Thomas. The song was played—as per his last wish—when his body was kept for the public to pay homage. Chandrakalabham... was among the many emotional tropes that the Congress-led United Democratic Front used in Thrikkakara (where the byelection was necessitated by the untimely death of sitting MLA P.T). But their biggest emotional motif in this election was their candidate—Uma Thomas, former KSU leader of Maharajas college and wife of P.T. And, that worked. The UDF won the fierce battle in Thrikkakara with a record majority of over 25,000 votes.
“Emotional factor did play a role in the victory of Uma Thomas,” says political analyst and senior journalist Sunnykutty Abraham.
“P.T. Thomas was a man of strong convictions. He was so active in his constituency and was approachable to the people. So, that emotional factor was definitely present. But I won’t say the emotional factors alone contributed to the victory of Uma Thomas. Thrikkakara is an urban constituency of cosmopolitan culture. It has an educated electorate. So, emotional factor alone cannot ensure the victory of a candidate.”
Other factors for UDF victory
According to Abraham, two major factors contributed to the victory of the UDF. “First one is making Uma Thomas their candidate,” he says. “She was a great candidate; she has strong Congress background. She was with P.T. all these years and she knew the constituency very well. Besides, her humble and pleasant appearance made her a favourite for the voters.”
Abraham points out that the CPI(M) campaign itself began with much delay and confusion about candidate selection. There were rumours that Ernakulam district committee member K.S. Arunkumar would become the LDF candidate. The CPI(M) activists had even started painting compound walls, seeking votes for the young leader. However, the party then introduced Dr Jo Joseph, a cardiologist at the Lissie Hospital, Ernakulam, run by the powerful Syro Malabar Catholic Church, in a dramatic fashion. The party's decision to announce the candidature of Dr Joseph in the presence of Catholic priests suggested that the candidate has the backing of the church. Allegations that Cardinal George Alencherry, head of the Syro Malabar Church, had a say in fixing the CPI(M) candidate gained momentum. The CPI(M) leadership and the church leadership sought to quell the allegations, but the controversy did not die down. Thrikkakara falls under the Ernakulam-Angamaly archdiocese, which is now a divided house over an alleged land scam and a liturgical debate. The clergy and the laity of the archdiocese have been divided into two factions supporting and opposing Cardinal Alencherry. Their rivalry was surely reflected in the bypolls as well.
“I feel the CPI(M) failed to understand the inner dynamics of this rivalry,” says Abraham. “If Arun Kumar was the candidate, I feel Thrikkakara would have seen a better political fight.”
The political analyst cites the growing discontent among people about the policies of the Pinarayi Vijayan government, especially K-Rail—the high speed rail corridor that would stretch from Thiruvananthapuram in the southern end of the state to Kasaragod in the north— as the second main reason for Uma’s victory. “The CPI(M) campaigned with ‘development mantra’. But the major development projects in Ernakulam district are not contributed by the LDF governments. In fact, they opposed some of the major development projects in the district. So, facing people of Ernakulam with ‘development’ trope was not a great idea.”
Strategic errors
Thrikkakara assembly constituency was formed in 2011. Since then, only Congress candidates have won the election here. In 2011, Benny Behanan won with a margin of 22,406 votes. P.T. was given the seat in the next two assembly elections. He won the constituency with a margin of 11,966 in 2016 and 14,329 in 2021.
The CPI(M) had the option to project the election as an insignificant one. Adding one more MLA to the treasury benches would not have made a big difference. However, the Communists approached the election with a super-aggressive campaign. They conducted an unprecedented grassroots level campaigning, with CM Vijayan himself leading the campaign. The CPI(M) saw an opportunity to extrapolate a positive result in Thrikkakara as the consent of the public of the entire state for their ambitious projects like K-Rail. “They gave so much hype for this election,” says Abraham. “They made it a high-profile affair. And, that’s what makes their loss more painful. The election verdict has become a tight slap on the face of the government.”
Meanwhile, the UDF was facing a life-or-death situation. “Had Uma Thomas failed, the UDF would have disintegrated,” says Abraham. “Because the Muslim League would have left the alliance. A lot of leaders from the Congress also would have defected.” Abraham notes that the Congress and the UDF leadership understood this catastrophic position of the alliance well, and worked together.
“They didn’t have the monetary power of the LDF,” says Abraham. “But the leaders and the cadres wholeheartedly worked in Thrikkakara. Even veteran leaders like Oommen Chandy went for home and flat visits.”
Winners and losers
Opposition leader V.D. Satheeshan is one of the biggest winners in this election. “He surely played a great role. But the credit for the victory cannot be attributed to Satheeshan alone,” says Abraham. “ Satheeshan and his supporters in the party can and will make it his victory. One thing is for sure; he cemented his position in the party and as the opposition leader.” The victory will make KPCC president K. Sudhakaran also more powerful.
Former Union minister K.V. Thomas, who was recently expelled from the Congress, is one of the biggest losers in this election. Thomas was expelled after he had aligned publicly with the CPI(M) governance agenda.
After the results were out, Congress workers staged a victory procession to the residence of K.V. Thomas with “thirutha” fish and burned the pictures of him alleging that he backstabbed the grand old party.
“The CPI(M) may give some post to Thomas, still it’s a loss for the veteran leader,” says Abraham.
The BJP tried to make the polls a bipolar contest, but failed once again. The BJP focused their campaign mainly on the sizable Christian population in the constituency.
CASA (Christian Association and Alliance For Social Change), a Christian fringe group allegedly backed by the Sangh Parivar, also came supporting the saffron party’s candidate A.N. Radhakrishnan. The BJP also projected P.C. George—who was arrested over hate speech against a minority community—as a victim of CPI(M)’s appeasement politics. The BJP candidate even likened him to Jesus Christ.
However, both the BJP and P.C. George failed to have any impact. “Christians of Kerala knows well what is the real attitude of the BJP towards them,” says Abraham. “Everybody knows that the BJP’s love for Christians is just a plot. It has also been proved that fringe groups like CASA have no impact at all at the ground level.”