Come October, Pakistan may be removed from the ''grey list'' of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the global watchdog for combating terror financing. The impact is not expected to be positive for India as intelligence agencies are warning of an increase in terror activities with Pakistan-based terror groups pushing arms and weapons into Jammu and Kashmir.
There are reports of arms and IEDs being sent into Kashmir in a big way, and the Jammu and Kashmir police has strengthened the security grid in the face of increased threats.
However, with Pakistan escaping the pressure of the FATF grey list, both terror acts and terror financing are expected to pick up in a big way, targeting Indian hinterland through J&K.
Sources in the security establishment said Islamabad's measures, a list of actionable points shared with FATF, are a smokescreen to show its commitment to combating terror, while the reality is that the country remains a safe haven for terrorists and terror financing activities. The biggest example is that convictions have not happened in the 26/11 terror attack case in Pakistan and Sajid Mir, one of the chief perpetrators of the crime, is still roaming freely. No action has also been taken against Talha Saeed, son of 26/11 mastermind Hafiz Saeed who is the new face of Jamaat-e-Dawa (JuD). According to intelligence agencies, Talha is next in line to take over functions of JuD, the parent body of the globally proscribed Lashkar e Tayyaba.
Recently, Pakistan had sentenced Hafiz Saeed to 32 years imprisonment in terror financing cases, seen by New Delhi as a token move to fulfil the FATF requirements. The latest worry is that once Pakistan is taken off the grey list and the internal clamp down is officially over, there may be a spurt in cross border terror threats, especially purchasing and routing arms and IEDs across the border to equip cadres of terror groups present in the valley to stoke unrest.
''The pressure on Pakistan is to act against likes of Talha Saeed and Sajid Mir and convictions in the 26/11 case,'' said a senior official.
However, the silver lining is that Pakistan has taken some steps due to the FATF pressure which would not have been possible despite mounting pressure by India, US and other countries.
''It is because of the FATF that Pakistan ISI was forced to take action against its most precious assets,'' said the official. Over the last four years, Pakistan faced international pressure to act against terrorists listed by the UN and those belonging to the LeT, FiF, JuD, JeM, AQ, IS, Taliban and Haqqani Network. It was forced to include Jaish-e-Mohammed, JuD and Falah-e-Insaniat in the list of banned organisations.
FIRs and chargesheets were filed against many terrorists whose names figured in the dossier shared by New Delhi even as eight UN listed terrorists were prosecuted and convicted who were specific to India-centric operations as well as 33 others who were not on the UN list as well.
The major ones were Hafiz Saeed, Yahya Mujahid and Zaki ur Rehman Lakhvi who were convicted in 4-8 cases for upto 30 years and Masood Azhar in one case for nine years.
''The terrorists who were roaming freely were denied freedom to act independently ,'' said an official, adding that the FATF crackdown on Pakistan has brought some good results for India as well.
New Delhi has learnt that more than 1,000 properties of India-centric terrorist organisations were confiscated by the state, over 1,000 bank accounts of these organisations and terrorists were seized and almost all social media accounts and websites in their names were taken down.
However, the challenge for New Delhi is to brace itself for a new Pak strategy where the terror financing networks slowly become alive once again, focussing largely on reviving India-centric operations so as to not draw the ire of other nations.
It is a temporary relief for now, with Pakistan staying on the FATF grey list till October. The development came late on June 17 when FATF president Marcus Pleyer announced the approval of Pakistan's performance report at the FATF plenary session in Berlin but added that an “onsite visit” would be done before a formal announcement is made.
While all eyes remain on this visit before October, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar, who headed the Pakistani delegation at the FATF plenary, expressed confidence of Pakistan emerging successful. She said there is “no pendency of action” to fulfill the demands any further.
It all began with Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Pakistan's foreign minister, meeting US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in New York on the sidelines of the UN conference on food security in May. The focus was on easing the strained US-Pakistan ties by ''expanding partnership'', and at the centre of it was Islamabad's attempt to impress the international community with its walk the talk approach on its National Action Plan on counter terrorism. The elephant in the room was the country’s continued presence on the FATF grey list, impacting its imports, exports and other financial activities, which needed to be addressed first. The Sharif government, which came to power in April after the dramatic exit of Imran Khan, was trying to mend its relations with the US, the UK and EU countries. Indian officials said the outcome has been predictable with most members of the working group joining China to pave way for Pakistan’s exit from the grey list.
Pakistan was put on the FATF grey list in June 2018 during its plenary and was directed to implement several action plans. Since then, Pakistan has been making desperate attempts to demonstrate some action against terror groups on its soil.