With the Election Commission of India announcing election dates, the stage is set for a triangular fight in Gujarat among the ruling BJP, opposition Congress and new entrant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
The election will be held in two phases on December 1 and 5. Counting will take place on December 8.
The BJP party in power for the last 27 years is attempting to retain it at all costs and is banking heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The party’s campaign is headed by Modi and Union Minister for Home Amit Shah. Gujarat is the home state for both of them.
Notwithstanding the issues of unemployment, anti-incumbency, inflation, and discontentment among various sections of the society, including farmers and government servants, the BJP is focussing on “Double Engine Government” (Government at the Centre and State) and has come out with a slogan “Bharosa ni Sarkar, BJP Sarkar” (Reliable government, BJP government).
Out of the 182 seats, 142 are general, 13 SC and 27 seats are for ST. The tenure of the Gujarat Assembly ends on February 18, 2023.
With the Lok Sabha elections only two years away, winning the assembly election with a good number of seats in Gujarat is a prestige issue for the BJP.
In fact, the results will be a referendum of sorts. Any dent in Modi’s popularity or a slip in the BJP’s tally is likely to affect the party’s performance, nationally, and in the Lok Sabha elections.
In 2017, the BJP managed to hold onto power by winning 99 seats, while the Congress came second with 77 seats. Three seats went to independents, two to Bharatiya Tribal Party and one to NCP.
None of the leaders would want to admit it but the discomfort in the BJP’s rank and file following the entry of the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP is evident.
The Bhupendra Patel-led government in the last few months has been working overtime to redress the grievances of maldharis, asha workers, police, doctors, primary teachers and several others.
In sharp contrast to the BJP setting the agenda, so far it has looked as if Kejriwal is setting them and the BJP is on the defensive.
Basking under the success of the party in Punjab, Kejriwal is matching the PM’s visits to Gujarat in the last couple of months.
With the slogan of “One chance to Kejriwal”, the party has announced “freebies” including 300 units of free electricity per month, Rs 1,000 monthly allowance to all women, an unemployment monthly allowance of Rs 3,000 to the unemployed youth and much more.
The AAP began by bringing in its Delhi model of education and compared it with the situation in Gujarat. Following it, the BJP announced a series of measures to showcase that everything was well and the education standards are improving in Gujarat.
Kejriwal also tried to play a soft Hindutva card by demanding that pictures of Hindu Goddesses be on currency notes. So far, they have been seen campaigning in the areas where the Congress is strong.
It is believed that the AAP will not only eat into the vote share of the Congress but will also make some dent in the BJP’s vote share as well.
For the Congress, unlike in 2017, Rahul Gandhi has not been much visible and the campaigning so far is led by the local leaders and Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot and Raghu Sharma.
Not going to the media much, the Congress is focussing on having a direct contact with the masses and has been holding several meetings in villages. Modi had also taken note of Congress’ strategy in one of his public meetings.
“Congress nu kaam bole che” (The works done by the Congress) is the grand old party’s election theme and vehicles showcasing various measures initiated by the party in the states ruled by it are moving in assembly segments.
All three parties have had their yatras and claimed to have received an overwhelming response.
However recently in Gujarat, the Morbi disaster that claimed 134 lives is on the back burner and politicking has taken a priority.
All eyes are now on the selection of the candidates. The BJP and the Congress are believed to have finalized the majority of the candidates and the AAP has already started announcing the names in phases for over a month.
A meeting, chaired by Shah, is ongoing at the BJP’s state headquarters Shree Kamalam in Gandhinagar for brainstorming on the names of probable candidates.