Even as security challenges arising out of the influx of Rohingyas from Myanmar have not settled down yet, fresh threats have cropped up in the northeastern states with escalating violence between the ethnic armed organisations and the Myanmar army in the past few months. The October incidents do not augur well for Indian security forces who suspect insurgent outfits of Manipur and Mizoram have got embroiled in the clashes that can have a spill over effect on either side of the international border, leading to spiralling violence in the region.
Notably, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), Kanglei Yawol Kunna Lup (KYKL), Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), Manipur People's Liberation Front, the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) of Manipur along with the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) have for long been maintaining their hideouts and other facilities in Myanmar territory close to Indo-Myanmar border. Some of these are Rakhine Chin, Sagaing, Kachin, Shan and Kayin .
It is being suspected that some of the cadres and leaders of these Indian insurgent outfits are acting as mercenaries against the active armed militia to neutralise them. A security official said this is being done either on a daily basis or as a long term strategy for an exchange of cash and safe sanctuaries in the neighbouring country. The Indian border guarding troops are alert as the region is likely to remain on the boil for some time and the involvement of insurgent groups can have long term implications for security in the region.
''The insurgent groups are likely to become more emboldened if they get cross border support for their role in the ongoing crisis. This does not augur well for Indian security forces who have been trying to dismantle their support base across the border,'' said a security official. Drug trade, gun running and hawala networks are some of the ways by which these outfits have been liaising with the cross border elements posing national security challenges .
Myanmar's ethic armed organisations, especially in Chin state, are learnt to have also raised eyebrows over Indian insurgent groups getting covert support. The claims are unverified, but worrisome. The immediate worry is that since the Chin state shares border with Mizoram and Manipur, the rapidly escalating conflict—not only in Chin but in Kachin and Sagaing region as well—can spill over to the Indian side and pose security risks for Indian forces deployed along the Indo-Myanmar border.
The emerging scenario isn't encouraging. The People's Defence Forces, the local militia group, has been gaining strength resulting in protracted battles with the Myanmar army in various parts of the neighbouring country . Of late, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the armed wing of the Kachin Independence Organisation, one of the biggest armed groups in Myanmar, is learnt to have combined force with the PDF, stirring unrest and violence. Thereafter, the airstrike by the Myanmar Air Force on October 23 in Kachin state resulted in the killing of more than a 100 people, including KIO officials and cadres. This was the deadliest single aerial strike by the military since it seized power in a coup in Myanmar last year overthrowing the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. This is likely to trigger a strong retaliation, with intelligence reports indicating that the KIA may be planning to launch a major offensive against the Myanmar army in Kachin and adjoining northern Sagaing region.
