As Nepal elects its new prime minister next week, the ruling alliance of Sher Bahadur Deuba seems to be forging ahead to form the government once again. The Indian security brass is on tenterhooks to catch the winds fast—whether the Madhesis are losing steam this time or the communist parties are rallying behind China.
“We want Nepal to have a strong government. A weak coalition won’t be able to tackle issues effectively, either domestically or with India or China,” Bishnu Rijal, a central committee member of K.P. Sharma Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) told THE WEEK from Kathmandu.
Rijal dismissed rumours that his party will build an alliance with Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda’s Maoist party in case of a hung Parliament.
New Delhi is eyeing an opportunity to smoothen its ties with Kathmandu to counter-balance the rising security concerns around Beijing's power maximisation in the Himalayan region. For New Delhi, a lot is at stake especially on the security and strategic front as China has been pushing infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative and creating a power bloc with Pakistan and Nepal to extend the China-Pakistan economic corridor to Afghanistan.
If the close Covid cooperation at the four country virtual meet prodded by Beijing in 2020 was any signal, Indian intelligence has picked it up and is mindful of the importance of the democratic process playing out in Nepal this time.
“It is known that owing to security issues, India cannot afford to have a neutral approach to the elections, but it appears to maintain a low profile this time,” said Prateek Joshi, a scholar at Oxford and managing editor at Oxford Silk Road Society, a think tank based at Oxford.
He said in case of an NC-Maoist victory, a greater role of the US cannot be ruled out. “On the other hand, despite warming up to India after his ouster, Oli has repeatedly issued statements critical of India, albeit in a less aggressive tenor.”
The time is ripe to signal the need for enhanced cooperation between India and Nepal on shared security concerns, combating terrorism, cracking down on fake currency notes, arms and weapon smuggling across the porous border. Memories of the terror hijacking of the IC 814 plane during its flight from Kathmandu to Delhi on December 24, 1999 is still alive in the minds of security brass on both sides.
But the growing nationalist sentiment coupled with the Chinese overdrive of its developmental projects has the Indian security agencies worried since Nepalis believe it is beneficial to balance ties with China and India, tilting in favour of the former since 2016.
Kathmandu is still reeling under the map issue which it claimed was a ''unilateral'' assertion over the disputed Kalapani territory. Nepal has registered a formal complaint with New Delhi. Going a step further, it moved a constitutional amendment bill to revise the map in its national emblem depicting Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura within Nepali borders. “Our ties with India are normal now but there are valid and genuine issues that need to be resolved,” Rijal said.
On the other hand, Nepal’s pending issues with China include the implementation of its BRI projects and several other MoUs and agreements that are yet to see the light of the day.
Joshi said the silver lining is that unlike previous elections, where anti-India rhetoric took center stage, foreign policy issues have taken a backseat this time.
“Oli's accusations on India's role in spreading Covid to Nepal and the controversy surrounding Lipulekh marked the lowest point in bilateral ties,” he said. This phase also coincided with the collapse of the left coalition and the appointment of Sher Bahadur Deuba as the new prime minister.
Lately, there was also a controversy over Nepal-US relationship, closely being observed by both China and India. “Nepal had to reject the US State Partnership Program under pressure that it could potentially impact its sovereignty,” Joshi pointed out.
Whatever may be the outcome of the polls, security officials said close cultural, linguistic ties, interlinked economy and firm commitment are going to remain the backbone of enhanced cooperation; not to forget Nepal’s commitment not to allow its soil for terror and other inimical activities against India.