Voting began on Monday in the by-election to six assembly constituencies in five states and the Mainpuri parliamentary seat in Uttar Pradesh.
Today is a big test for former Uttar Pradesh CM Akhilesh Singh Yadav, as Mainpuri, the Lok Sabha seat of his deceased father Mulayam Singh Yadav goes to the polls.
Since 1996, Mainpuri has been a Samajwadi Party seat. Party founder Mulayam held it four times out of the seven polls it has seen since then. Twice it went to Mulayam’s nephews Dharmendra and Tej Pratap.
In the last Lok Sabha election (2019), the senior Yadav polled more than 53% of the votes, while the BJP candidate had picked up around 44% of the vote share. What was interesting was that this marked a fall of over 10% for the SP vote while the BJP vote swung up by 11.30%.
The SP candidate is Mulayam’s daughter-in-law and Akhilesh’s wife Dimple Yadav. In 2019, Dimple, the sitting MP from Kannauj had lost to the BJP candidate by 10,000 votes. Her voters had deemed her inaccessible. Even for the campaigning, she showed up towards the end. It was a loss Akhilesh took very hard.
Today, at stake is not just the question of holding on to a family stronghold but also of establishing himself as a true and worthy successor of his father.
The most notable move made by Akhilesh in this election has been a softening attitude towards his estranged Uncle Shivpal- to whom the BJP was making overtures not so long ago. Uncle and nephew campaigned together singing praises of Mulayam. Shivpal went as far as asking the electorate to refer to Akhilesh as ‘chotte Netaji’- in the manner of his late father.
In the past, Akhilesh has paid little attention to by-polls and hence has almost never campaigned for them. It was this reluctance which cost his party two probable wins in Azamgarh and Rampur earlier this year. However, this Akhilesh has been different. He has been stationed in Mainpuri for almost the entirety of the campaign, holding road shows, addressing corner meetings, walking about and campaigning door to door.
He has also been aggressive against the BJP- accusing it of distributing sarees and liquor to get votes. Uncle Shivpal has complained that the party is using drones to monitor even their homes.
The senior Yadav’s absence is the largest presence of this poll. Even his 91-year-old teacher came out to campaign in his name. The candidate herself has only chanted the senior Yadav’s name attributing all of Mainpuri’s development to him. Dimple has said that her win is actually Mulayam’s win, and the electorate’s tribute to him.
While Yadavs' are numerically the strongest, the BJP’s candidate Raghuraj Shakhya’s caste men come in second. Shakhya was with the SP once, and he even headed a regional wing of Shivpal’s breakaway party. Before he filed his nomination, he made a stop at the senior Yadav’s cremation spot to seek blessings. As a two-time MP and MLA, Shakhya’s people skills are his asset.
The Vidhan Sabha seat of Khatauli and Rampur will also see voting today, all eyes in UP shall be set on Mainpuri. It is there where the political will become most personal for Akhilesh and set the mark for his future.