Selective targeting of ‘Hindus’ in Rajouri area of the Jammu Region on January 1 was a copybook-style terror strike by Pakistani/Pakistan-sponsored terrorists. Having gained undetected entry into the Rajouri forests, the terrorists chose an ‘easy’ target with high perceptual impact. The terror strike not only shattered the growing myth of ‘terror-free’ Jammu region but more importantly, reinforced the indispensability of ‘terror leverage’ in Pakistan’s style of ‘geopolitics’.
Most assessments on declining terror in Jammu and Kashmir are perhaps inadequately cognisant of the high ‘irrationality’ and acute ‘desperation’ in Pakistan’s present-day polity and strategy. Having grown on a heady diet of self-acclaimed ‘military superiority’ and ‘religious primacy’, where past military defeats are considered ‘abrasions’ and present economic decline a ‘conspiracy’, the fallibility of jihadi style terrorism is inconceivable in large segments of Pakistan populace.
Repeated failures to achieve results through terrorism have therefore contributed to increased desperation in Pakistan’s ‘establishment’. Abrogation of Article 370 and 35A has further enhanced the ‘desperation’ content in Pakistan polity. Calibrating terror to obviate breaching of the ‘threshold’ as in Pulwama, is another challenge for Pakistan’s terror mentors.
Consequently, while innocent ‘civilians’ may have been chosen as ‘below threshold’ targets, under Pakistan’s convoluted thinking process, there is no other alternative in Pakistan for achieving its J&K objectives, especially in its economically weakened and geopolitically isolated state, except terrorism!
Present-day Pakistan faces myriad internal challenges. After the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan’s Afghan policy is in tatters. The Taliban govt has not only questioned the ‘Durand Line’ but also claimed large Pashtun areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. There are clashes between the security forces of the two countries along the Durand Line, which was unthinkable in the past. After abrogating the ceasefire on November 30, 2022, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is engaged in full-scale insurgency in the
Waziristan. Further south, the political discontent in Baluchistan has acquired great momentum. There are large-scale political rallies against the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Gwadar. Baluch nationalists are now targeting Pakistan Army openly. The discontent in Sindh is also on the rise with frequent protests in Karachi. The Pastoons, Baloochs and Sindhi nationalists have acquired enhanced potency to contest the Pakistani establishment.
The political equations at the federal level remain tenuous and uncertain. There are no easy answers with Pakistan for these internal challenges. Pakistan is also going through its worst economic crisis. With the loss of its ‘frontline state’ status post-withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan, the aids and grants have dwindled and debt obligations have increased dramatically.
The share of gross debt has exceeded 70 per cent of GDP in comparison to govt expenditure at only 17 per cent to 18 per cent of GDP for the year 2021-22. The traditional benefactors of Pakistan like China, Saudi Arabia, IMF, ADB, etc, are no longer forthcoming. Pakistan is on the verge of loan default. Inflation is rising with a steep rise in prices of essential commodities. Pakistan's currency is losing credibility.
Medicines are becoming scarce. Societal discontent is increasing and there is general despondency apparent in the entire country. Again, there are no easy or quick solutions for Pakistan’s economic woes. State sponsorship of terror is now systemic to Pakistan’s establishment as well as the polity and is rooted in their grand design to ‘wrest’ Kashmir and
‘control’ Afghanistan. Religion-based national identity, at divergence with the natural Baluch, Pastoon and Sindhi identities has accentuated political discord and precipitated insurgencies. Present-day Pakistan is plagued with acute economic and financial instability with high levels of public despondency.
Greater awareness of non-attainability of Kashmir and Afghanistan ‘objectives’ has turned the focus of numerous jihadi tanzeems ‘inwards’ with adverse impact on national stability and unity of the Pakistan state. Comparatively, India has maintained steady growth in a stable and secure environment. The Indian growth engine has displayed potential to shape the fortunes of the global economy positively. India is recognised for its harmonious and inclusive growth.
The measures initiated in Jammu and Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A
have brought the security situation in the Kashmir Valley under effective control. The Union and the Union Territory administrations have been very proactive in actualising plethora of welfare and developmental measures, which have very realistically addressed the aspirations of the people, especially the youth. The civil and societal indicators are upbeat with significantly reduced scope for Pakistan’s misadventures and terrorism in areas north of Pir Panjal. In the obtaining environment therefore, expanding the arc of terrorism south of Pir Panjal and re-energising proxy war in the Jammu Region is an emerging criticality for Pakistan.
The capability to undertake terror strikes in India, specifically in Jammu and Kashmir is perhaps the only ‘leverage’ now available to impoverished Pakistan against an emergent India. In the present environment, where Pakistan is failing economically and getting increasingly ‘isolated’ in the geostrategic arena, ‘letting go’ of the ‘only’ leverage against India is tantamount to Pakistan ‘giving up’ its ‘Kashmir dream’. Consequently, while Pakistan may moderate its terror activities temporarily under politico-economic pressure, it may not jettison its terrorism card totally, whatever the costs!
On the ground however, infiltration into the Kashmir Valley and sustaining terrorism in the traditional regions north of Pir Panjal are becoming increasingly difficult. Pakistan is accordingly obliged to explore the option of reviving terrorism in the Jammu Region, South of Pir Panjal. In the near future, while efforts to re-energise terrorism in the Kashmir valley will continue, there is likely to be a matching focus of proxy war in the areas south of Pir Panjal.
The author is former deputy chief of Army Staff. He was responsible for the capability development of the Indian Army. He has extensive experience of commanding formations and units in the counter-terrorism areas as well as along the LoC with Pakistan and LAC with China.
