IMD: Severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy to intensify in 48 hours; weakens onset of monsoon

The severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy, the first storm brewing in the Arabian Sea this year, would intensify further gradually during the next 48hrs and move north-northwestwards during the next three days. 

A tweet by the IMD read: "VSCS BIPARJOY over eastcentral Arabian Sea, lay centred at 0530hrs IST of 08thJune, near lat 13.9N & long 66.0E, about 860km west-southwest of Goa, 910km southwest of Mumbai, would intensify further and move north-northwestwards." 

Though the tentative track of the system will be in the northward direction, storms at times defy the predicted track and the intensity, reported PTI quoting experts. Atmospheric conditions and cloud mass indicate that the system is likely to sustain the strength of a very severe cyclone till June 12.

Though a senior IMD scientist said the southern peninsula will get rain under the influence of the cyclonic storm, the agency has not predicted any major impact on countries adjoining the Arabian Sea, including India, Oman, Iran, and Pakistan. 

However, fishermen in Gujarat and Karnataka have been warned not to venture into the sea as the cyclone is likely to cause wind gusts of 40 to 50 kmph in coastal districts in the coming days. The cyclone is likely to cause light rains in Saurashtra and south Gujarat regions between June 9 and 11, an IMD official said.

The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has also warned that there would likely be high waves in the range of 2.3-3.2 meters along the coast from Mangaluru to Karwar.

Monsoon impacted 

According to the weather agency, though conditions are favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala within two days, the cyclone has been impacting the intensity of the monsoon and the onset over Kerala would be "mild".

According to the weather office data, India received 57% lower rainfall than average in the first week of June due to the delay in the onset of the monsoon. While the normal rainfall in the first week of June is 23.1, India only received 9.9 mm rainfall this year, a 57% lower rainfall than average.

The delay in the monsoon poses an unfavourable situation as the monsoon is the lifeline of India's agrarian section as it provides nearly 70% of the rain India needs to water farms and recharge reservoirs. 

Though the IMD has predicted below-average rains for June, the monsoon is expected to pick up later. However, the entire four-month season will receive only an average amount of rain despite the formation of a possible El Nino weather phenomenon.