The Election Commission has declared that the byelection to the Puthuppally assembly constituency that was necessitated due to the vacancy that arose following the demise of Congress stalwart and former Kerala Chief Minister Oommen Chandy will be held on September 5. Swiftly responding, the Congress party has chosen Chandy Oommen, the former CM's son, as their candidate. While the LDF and NDA are anticipated to announce their candidates shortly, let's delve into the historical statistics that shed light on the Puthuppally constituency.
Constituency’s history and nature
Comparing the number of electors in Puthuppally between 1957—the first assembly election since the formation of the unified Kerala state—and 2021, there has been a remarkable growth of 339.42%. In 1957, the voter count was only 58,686, while in 2021, it had surged to 175,959.
Oommen Chandy served as the representative for the Puthuppally constituency for the past 53 years. However, among the eight panchayats within the constituency, including the Puthuppally panchayat, the LDF currently holds power in six of them. Only Ayarkkunnam and Meenadom Panchayats are under the rule of the UDF. Moreover, in the recent elections, Oommen Chandy's margin experienced a substantial drop from 27,092 votes in 2016 to 9,044 votes in 2021.
Various Christian denominations hold a significant presence in the constituency. The Orthodox Church, to which Oommen Chandy belonged, commands a sizable population in Pampady, Meenadom, and Puthuppally panchayats, as well as some parts of Vakathanam panchayat. Conversely, the rival church faction, the Jacobites, exert their dominance in Manarcad. Catholics form a significant population in Kooroppada and Akalakunnam panchayats.
Jaick C. Thomas, a young leader from the CPI(M), who emerged as the primary rival to Oommen Chandy in the previous two elections, belongs to the Jacobite faction.
In 1970, Oommen Chandy faced his inaugural election from the Puthuppally assembly constituency. At that time, he held the position of Youth Congress president. Prof K.M. Chandy, a prominent figure within the party, entrusted him with the party symbol along with the words, "Even if you come second, Congress will consider it a victory." This sentiment arose from the fact that in the two elections preceding the 1970 contest, the Communist candidate E.M. George emerged victorious in the constituency. However, Oommen Chandy secured a win in 1970, garnering 54.21 per cent of the total votes. He further improved this performance to 59 per cent in 1977.
Oommen Chandy's most substantial victory margin materialised in 2011 when he triumphed by a margin of 33,255 votes against Suja Susan George of the CPI(M). In the 2021 elections, his margin diminished to 9,044 votes. This marked the first instance since 1987 that his margin was less than 10,000 votes. Notably, in 1987, the current state minister for Cooperation and Registration, V.N. Vasavan, stood as his primary rival.
Chandy Oommen’s upper hand
A pivotal advantage for the UDF and Chandy Oommen lies in the emotional wave stirred by Oommen Chandy’s passing. The revered leader received an indelible farewell, arguably one of the most memorable farewells for a political figure in recent decades. The swift announcement of Chandy Oommen's candidacy could additionally serve to project the unity between Congress and UDF in this battle. Drawing inspiration from their approach in the Thrikkakara byelections, where Uma Thomas, the wife of late MLA P.T. Thomas, was declared as the candidate well in advance, the UDF aims to replicate their strategy.
On another front, there are circulating speculations from the LDF camp that Jaick will not be their candidate against Chandy Oommen. Despite Jaick's commendable performance in reducing Oommen Chandy's margin in the previous elections, he may not stand against Chandy Oommen this time. Jaick asserts a stronger grassroots network within the constituency when compared to Chandy Oommen. However, in the upcoming byelection, it will prove to be a formidable challenge for Jaick or any other candidate fielded by the CPI(M) to surpass the enduring influence of Oommen Chandy’s legacy.