It was surprising to find no surprises in the list of candidates released by the ruling BRS (formerly TRS) on Monday for the upcoming assembly elections. Telangana CM and BRS President K. Chandrashekar Rao announced the names of 115 candidates out of 119 seats, at least 3 months ahead of the anticipated election date.
There were only nine changes visible in the list of sitting MLAs, out of which two tickets were passed on to their family members due to political obligations. These are Secunderabad Containment and Korutla. The six candidates who were dropped were facing some form of anti-incumbency, allegations of unethical conduct, or a court case. These constituencies are Uppal, Station Ghanpur, Wyra, Khanapur, Vemulawada, and Boath. In Kamareddy, the sitting MLA had to make way for KCR, who is all set to contest from two constituencies, his traditional seat Gajwel and Kamareddy.
BRS party sources believe that KCR throwing his hat into Kamareddy will usher in a positive mood for the pink party in the north-western region bordering Maharashtra, where it wants to make inroads in the upcoming general elections. However, the opposition parties feel that KCR is playing safe, as he is on shaky ground in Gajwel, the seat he has represented twice.
There were no changes among the 93 sitting MLAs who were included in the remaining list of 106 names. In the Telangana Assembly, BRS has 104 MLAs, and KCR opting to retain most of his legislators has caught political analysts and psephologists by surprise.
A private survey agency that recently released an on-ground mood report had stated that the "majority" of BRS MLAs are facing anti-incumbency sentiment.
"It is a big gamble by BRS. They tried the same strategy in the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation elections and lost many seats because they refused to change the sitting Corporators. At that time, the BJP took advantage and won many seats. It remains to be seen how the Congress exploits this situation and aligns its campaign accordingly," said an analyst who did not wish to be named. He also pointed out that by merely changing candidates, BRS could have been in a much more advantageous position.
It's not beyond comprehension why KCR took the risk. For KCR and his party, the perception is that ultimately, his image and confidence count, whereas the contribution and reputation of the members representing it at the assembly level do not have much bearing on the election outcome. KCR seems to have once again proved that he is willing to bet big on himself.
According to party sources, BRS released the list early so that the rebels could be managed, and there would be ample time for the candidates to start groundwork. KCR stated on Monday that they are aiming for 95-105 seats in the upcoming assembly elections.
During the press meet, he made it clear that they maintain friendly terms with the MIM. What about the communists who had joined hands with BRS in the last by-election held in Munugode, which BRS won? It is unlikely that the CPI or the CPI(M) will form an alliance with BRS, given that the ruling party has held back the names of only four seats and doesn't have much to offer in case both sides decide to forge an alliance.
