In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP is aligned with Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party (JSP). The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is also aligned with JSP. What about JSP? It is aligned with both. However, TDP and BJP aren't sure if they want to be in an alliance with each other. This, in short, explains the love triangle blossoming in a confusing way in Andhra Pradesh politics.
The arrest of former AP CM N. Chandrababu Naidu has brought the TDP and JSP closer than ever, as Pawan Kalyan condemned his arrest almost immediately. The actor met Naidu in Rajahmundry jail to express solidarity and officially solidified their alliance, with Naidu’s son and TDP General Secretary, Nara Lokesh, in tow.
“This is purely political vendetta (Naidu’s arrest). Today I have made the decision that Jana Sena and TDP will fight elections together,” said Kalyan, expressing his intention to defeat YS Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP in the polls scheduled for 2024. He did not provide clarity on where the BJP stands in this pact, even though he has been an ally of the BJP for years now. When asked by media persons, Lokesh later stated that the BJP has to make up their mind on whether it wants to be in the alliance. In all likelihood, the TDP and JSP strongly suspect the BJP's involvement in Naidu’s arrest, which seems to have created some mistrust between the parties.
As for BJP’s reaction, it is in a wait-and-watch mode and hasn’t severed ties with the JSP. The BJP is in a tight spot as the party high command isn’t too keen on working with Naidu, given the past bitter experience when TDP quit NDA in 2018, protesting against the delay in granting special category status to the bifurcated state. Naidu even joined hands with Congress and criticised PM Modi during his election campaign.
The BJP leaders are also wary of being relegated to the third spot in the alliance if they agree, most likely getting a raw deal in the form of a few seats, considering they have no strength in the state assembly or parliament. Another possible scenario is BJP contesting independently to establish their presence across the state and improve their vote percentage. This would prove to be advantageous to the YSRCP as the BJP-led centre would not be formally backing Naidu.
Regarding TDP and JSP, as things stand now, there will be a joint committee comprising members from both parties to decide on seat-sharing and the future course of action to take on Jagan. Naidu’s arrest seems to have increased the bargaining power of JSP, which has only one seat in the Assembly. It clearly appears that TDP is more dependent on JSP and not vice versa for various reasons.
To start with, since TDP is facing a serious crisis with their supreme leader in jail, the party is almost rudderless, and a strong shoulder in the form of Pawan Kalyan is the need of the hour. Next is to address caste polarisation. Andhra Pradesh is split vertically based on two castes—Kammas supporting TDP and Reddys favoring YSRCP.
The Kamma community has strongly consolidated post Naidu’s arrest, throwing their weight behind the 73-year-old leader, who also hails from the same community. The forward caste community, which constitutes around five per cent of voters in the state, is at the forefront of organising support programs and running pro-Naidu shows on news channels owned by them.
However, a strong vote bank is needed for TDP to win power, and that is where Pawan Kalyan comes into the picture. He is from the Kapu community, which enjoys the status of one of the largest communities in the state. Though Pawan Kalyan cannot be trusted to garner a sizeable chunk of Kapu votes, given his past performance when he himself lost in two constituencies where his community was in good numbers, TDP is still hopeful that the trend may change this time.
The biggest challenge for JSP and TDP would be to accommodate each other in a positive way and convince their voters to vote with maturity, without internal strife.
