Decoding Odisha politics: How BJP and BJD set to face each other

While notification for the first phase of the Lok Sabha and assembly elections in Odisha will come out on Thursday, the three major political parties of the state are yet to declare full lists of candidates.

The ruling Biju Janta Dal (BJD) has fielded Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik from Kantabanji assembly seat in western Odisha’s Bolangir district which will be his second seat besides his traditional Hinjli assembly constituency in south Odisha’s Ganjam district. Naveen has been representing Hinjli since 2000 when he became the chief minister for the first time.

The BJD’s decision indicates that party wants to give a message in western Odisha where the opposition BJP had won five Lok Sabha seats in 2019. Western Odisha is considered to be a stronghold of the BJP and even when there was a BJP-BJD alliance, the saffron party was allotted more seats in the region, where the BJD had more seats in coastal Odisha.

The chief minister contesting from a second seat, that too in western Odisha, is not new. In 2019 general elections, he had contested and won from Bijepur assembly seat in Bargarh district besides his seat of Hinjli. He later left Bijepur, retaining Hinjli. The BJD also won Bijepur in byelection and its elected MLA Rita Sahu became a minister.

The BJD has fielded its main organizational leader Pranab Prakas Das in western Odisha’s Sambalpur against BJP heavyweight and Union Education and Skill Development Minister Dharmendra Pradhan. Das is a sitting MLA from coastal Odisha’s Jajpur. He is the organisational secretary of the party and can be considered as a main front-ranking leader after Naveen and his close aide V.K. Pandian, a Tamil Nadu-born Odisha cadre IAS officer. Pandian has taken voluntary retirement from service and joined the BJD before the election season.

By fielding Das against Pradhan, the BJD also tried to correct the impression of an “understanding” with the saffron party which had solidified during the recent alliance speculations.

While the BJD has always helped the BJP at the national level—both inside and outside parliament—the two parties are main rivals in the state. But during the two recent  visits of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the states the bonhomie between him and Naveen was widely noticed. The Congress said there has been a marriage between the BJD and the BJP while speculations of an alliance also strengthened the impression. The BJD also supported Union Railway Minister Aswini Vaishnaw’s second time nomination to Rajya Sabha, something which was unprecedented.

The alliance, however, did not materialise and BJP state president Manmohan Samal declared that his party will contest all seats in the state alone. After that, both parties have been taking potshots at each other. The BJP says it is confident of coming to power in the state this time.

The BJD and the BJP had alliance in three Lok Sabha elections and two assembly elections. With BJD as the major partner and BJP as the junior partner, they had swept the polls under the leadership of Naveen, who had come to politics in 1997 after the death of his legendary father Biju Patnaik—a two-time chief minister of the state. Naveen had formed his regional party named after his father with the latter’s supporters from the then Janta Dal.

In 1998, when Atal Bihari Vajpayee became the prime minister, Naveen joined his cabinet as steel and mines minister. In 2000 assembly polls, the two party alliance defeated the ruling Congress in the state ravaged by super cyclone. The alliance again won both Lok Sabha and assembly elections held together in 2004. Though the Vajpayee government lost that election, in Odisha, both parties under Naveen’s popularity (who had developed a ‘Mr Clean’ image by sacking three corrupt ministers at one go, something new in India) showed an impressive performance.

In 2004, Naveen advanced assembly elections by one year and clubbed it with Lok Sabha polls, which has been helping him till now. The alliance broke before 2009 elections, after the BJD alleged Sangh Parivar involvement in Kandhamal communal riots in 2008. Since then, the regional party has won all assembly elections and fared well in all Lok Sabha elections, countering all national waves including that of Narendra Modi. After Modi came to power at the Centre, the BJP has strengthened its position in Odisha and became the main opposition party, pushing the Congress to a poor third. 

The upcoming election is going to be a repetition of 2019, with both BJD and BJP facing each other and Congress as the third player. Had there been an alliance, the Congress would have become main opposition by default. 

Naveen contesting from Bolangir district sends out another message. PCC president Sarat Patnaik and Congress legislative party leader Narasingha Mishra are from Bolangir. Recently, BJD made former minister Surendra Singh Bhoi a Lok Sabha candidate from Bolangir after he quit the Congress and joined the party.

The MLA of Kantabanji, Santos Singh Saluja is also from Congress. During the last two elections, the BJD has been trying to cut into the Congress vote base and this time, too, the trend has not changed. 

After Naveen’s candidature was declared, Narasingha Mishra, MLA of Bolangir and CLP leader in assembly, said, “Since we are raising regional imbalance and there is pressure to carve out a separate state  of ‘Koshal’, the chief minister, out of fear, has decided to contest from Bolangir district. 

However, A. U. Singhdeo, former minister and scion of Bolangir royal family who also happens to be Naveen’s Doon School mate, expressed happiness over the chief minister’s decision. He said, “that way Bolangir will have a second chief minister”.

Singhdeo’s father R.N. Singhdeo was the first non-Congress chief minister of Odisha in 1967.

The state has 21 Lok Sabha seats. Like 2019, the BJD has allotted  one third seats to women candidates. The Congress has announced candidates for 17 seats. In 2019, the BJD won 12 seats while BJP got eight seats. Congress won only one seat.

Out of the 147 seats in the assembly, BJD announced names of nine candidates on Wednesday, including that of the chief minister’s second seat. Earlier, it had announced 126 names. In 2019, the party had won 112 seats.

The BJP has announced candidates for 133 seats for assembly polls. The Congress has announced 119 names.