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From candidate wealth to criminal records, research reveals alarming election statistics

Informed Voter Project Research has also studied manifestos of seven major parties 

Spoilt for choice: A shopkeeper arranges scarves bearing symbols and names of political parties in Mumbai | Amey Mansabdar

Consider this - Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde's wealth grew at a rate of 669% over the last five years, making it the highest rate of wealth growth amongst candidates across nine Mumbai-area constituencies. 

This was closely followed by sitting MP Rahul Shewale whose wealth grew at a rate of 619% in the same period. The greatest wealth accumulation declared during the current elections, is by BJP Rajya Sabha MP Piyush Goyal at 110.96 crore, followed by Shiv Sena (ES) candidate and sitting MLA from Jogeshwari (East) Ravindra Waikar at 54.51 crore. 

While the average growth rate of wealth for the 'ordinary Indian' has been merely 3.5% in the last 5 years, the wealth of candidates belonging to the ruling NDA alliance has grown 150%, that is, 43 times faster than the wealth of the 'ordinary Indian'. This and more such alarming statistics have been put out by MumbaiVotes.com, part of the Informed Voter Project, a non-profit citizen-researcher-driven civil society collective. 

In a recent press conference, Vivek Gilani, founding trustee of the project, revealed findings from the "exhaustive" research and evaluation conducted over the past three months. 

During the fifth phase of elections, the 'Informed Voter project' analysed the annual growth rate of wealth of the candidates contesting from nine parliamentary constituencies across Mumbai (Mumbai North, Mumbai North West, Mumbai North East, Mumbai North Central, Mumbai South Central, Mumbai South, Thane, Palghar, and Kalyan). It was found that the average wealth growth of candidates across the Eknath-Shinde faction of Shiv-Sena is the highest amongst all parties contesting in the nine Mumbai-Area constituencies. Not only that but also the difference between the magnitude of average wealth owned by NDA candidates in the Mumbai-Area and the INDIA alliance was observed to be starkly disparate; while the average wealth of an NDA candidate was found to be Rs 32.8 crore that of a INDIA bloc candidate was seen to be Rs 10.9 crore.

At the same time, criminal records were analysed too and this is what showed up - Of the major political parties, in the list of all candidates with pending criminal charges, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) scored the most Red Flags (44) followed by Shive Sena (Eknath Shinde) and Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) with 34 RED FLAGS each. In terms of Serious/Violent Criminal Charges (with possible prison terms of 10 years or greater), as declared in their affidavits submitted to the Election Commission of India, VBA topped the list with 20 serious red flags. 

The Informed Voter Project also analysed manifestos of political parties as the campaigning picks up heat. The manifestos of seven major parties (BJP, INC, CPI(M), NCP (SP), SHS (UBT), and All India Trinamool Congress, and CPI) were studied through a double-blinded process of narrative analysis (text coding) by analysts. The narrative analysis/coding consisted of evaluating each element according to the following parameters: Diagnostic Rigor, Clarity of Scope of the Promise, Clear timeline, Clear budget outlay, Clear implementation plan, and Clear commitment-oriented language. 

The promises were graded using only the above parameters; not on whether the Analysis Panel felt the solutions being proposed were meritorious and beneficial to society i.e. their own political perspectives on the subject were not a factor in evaluation. Promises that were predicated by diagnostic rigour, defined a clear scope of beneficiaries or stakeholders, included a clear timeline, proposed budgetary expenditure to fulfil the promise, articulated a clear implementation plan and were framed using language demonstrating clear commitment and action (as opposed to merely being notional or conveying of intention) scored ‘higher’ than others. 

'When it came to agriculture and farmer welfare, it was the promises laid down by the Trinamool Congress that came up trumps. This manifesto had clear references to the shortcomings of the current government (“agriculture’s share in the union budget almost being halved from 4.4% to 2.5% over the past 4 years”) as well as specific solutions to some prevalent issues in this sector,' as per the release. The manifesto of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Bal Thackeray) scored low on all 6 hierarchical counts from diagnostic rigour to clear timelines when it came to farmer issues.

It was also found that the BJP manifesto scored poorly in the area of law and justice, being rated consistently low across major counts, while the INC fared better, securing the second-highest score after Trinamool. The INC manifesto has dedicated sections explaining the legal entitlements and protections owed to various citizen groups that they recognise as SC/ST and OBCs, religious and linguistic minorities, persons with disabilities and LGBTQIA+. 

It also emphasizes the need to ensure press freedom through the Press Council of India Act, and supports the withdrawal of acts tilted towards government censorship such as the Broadcasting Services (Regulation) Bill, 2023 and Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023. While freedom of expression is also mentioned clearly by NCP, there are no specific instances provided, which reduced its scope, and diagnostic rigour, said the report by the Informed Voter Project.  

As per IVP (Informed Voter Project), in the area of gender issues, especially those related to women, NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) scored high, coming in third after Trinamool and CPI(M) manifestos by “endeavouring” to achieve 50% reservations for women in government jobs and fast-tracking women’s reservations in Parliament. This is echoed by the INC manifesto as well, which additionally promises 33% reservations for women in Lok Sabha elections like Trinamool and CPI(M).

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