The seven phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha election successfully concluded on June 1, 2024. The first phase of the election, which began on April 19, lasted 44 days, making it one of the longest elections, surpassed only by the 1951-’52 general election. With the results set to be declared on June 4, several media outlets in their exit polls predicted the return of the BJP-led NDA alliance to power for a third term. Exit polls revealed that the alliance would win over 350 seats, with an average of 12 polls predicting that the NDA would win 366 seats, the INDIA bloc with 145, and others 28.
What are exit polls, and how reliable are they?
Exit polls, unlike opinion polls, are issued on the day of voting and are surveys done after voters leave the polling station to determine how they voted. It gives an early indication of the results before counting votes.
Exitpolls' accuracy is determined by various factors, including the technique used to collect the data, the sample size of voters, the form of the questionnaire employed, and the scale and experience of the agency that gathered the data.
So, how accurate were exit polls historically? Let us examine the performance of exit polls in the Lok Sabha elections of 2009, 2014, and 2019.
2009
In 2009, four exit polls indicated that the Congress-led UPA alliance would win roughly 195 seats, while the NDA would win around 185. It was widely assumed that there would be a hung parliament then. In the end, Congress won around 206 seats, and the UPA won approximately 262 seats, falling only 10 seats short of achieving a parliamentary majority. It was unexpected and was very different from what the exit polls had projected. The NDA, on the other hand, only got around 158 seats, 27 seats less than the exit polls indicated.
2014
In 2014, it was widely believed that the BJP-led NDA alliance would win; however, exit polls drastically underestimated the size of the 'Modi wave'. The eight exit polls forecast an average of 283 seats for the NDA and 149 seats for the UPA. There was just one agency that predicted that the NDA would gain 300 plus seats. Finally, the NDA scored a resounding victory with 336 seats, while the BJP gained a majority by gaining 282 seats. The UPA only gained 60 seats, a significant departure from the expected 149.
2019
Exit polls for the 2014 Lok Sabha election indicated that the NDA would win for the second time in a row, giving Modia a second term as prime minister. On average, exit polls indicated that the NDA alliance would win 306 seats, while the UPA coalition would win 120. However, exit polls failed to predict the scope of the victory, as the NDA won 352 seats and the BJPalone won 303, exceeding the 300-seat mark for the first time in its history.
