Lok Sabha polls 2024 will go down in the history of elections as one of the most remarkable and exciting turnarounds in electoral politics of India. The propaganda machinery, role of enforcement agencies, prison trials, road shows, meditation of the prime minister in front of the media lights, awry exit poll, miraculous resurgence of the opposition, ironic Ayodya debacle and the middle path of the masses. India wakes up with a message that people can speak and beyond doubt democracy still matters in this country despite the mixed results.
Given the roller coaster ride of expectations and responses spread across the country, Tamil Nadu has not only withstood the massive political onslaught of the BJP but also delivered a stunning blow to the dreams of the saffron party without much acclamation and fanfare like the Uttar Pradesh. After 20 years, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and its allies have won all the 40 seats from Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry.
Tamil Nadu continues to torment and haunt the BJP as the final frontier despite the meticulous methods to divide the major opposition party like the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), undertake social engineering strategies to entice and engage caste groups, polarise the people on caste and communal lines, aggressive social media attacks, raids and intimidatory tactics through enforcement agencies, grandeur of public meetings with hired audience and lavish road shows.
In the end, BJP and its allies have lost all the seats they had contested with a big margin including the Dharmapuri constituency where the Pattali Makka Katchi (PMK) candidate Soumiya Anbumani was expected to win albeit with a slender majority.
How did this happen? The strong Dravidian narrative of identity politics is neither the only reason nor the dominant factor for the grand success of the DMK and its allies in the parliamentary elections 2024 in Tamil Nadu. BJP has grossly underestimated the social-ideological basis of the Dravidian parties like DMK and its organisational strength at the grassroots.
Although BJP has effectively penetrated and even succeeded in dividing the AIADMK into factions yet to assume that it has emerged as an alternative to DMK is a grand myth constructed through the boorish upstarts like Annamalai and his media management. Edapadi Palanisamy stoutly defied the tone and dictum of the BJP and refused to collaborate with the saffron party despite the veiled threats and intimidations from Amit Shah and company after having subdued the gang of three – O. Panneerselvam, T.T.V. Dinakaran and Sasikala.
AIADMK led by Palanisamy and the BJP drafts like Panneerselvam and Dinakaran have all been convincingly decimated by the DMK and its allies. There is much bigger setback for the BJP and its allies with the defeat of its candidates including those who contested on BJP symbol in all 23 constituencies with a meagre vote share of 11.4 per cent after aggressive campaign strategies, brutal push through its power at the Centre, institutional coercion, social media penetration and lavish display of financial clout.
BJP may have opened the third front in Tamil Nadu politics by breaking down the exclusive bipartisan dominance of the Dravidian parties like DMK and AIADMK and the three cornered contest is an emerging reality in Tamil Nadu politics. BJP is stretching its imagination a bit too far to assume that it has emerged as an alternative to the AIADMK and therefore all others should line up behind the party including the AIADMK.
The arrogance of power of the Centre and political naivety of the state leadership has collapsed the applecart of the BJP because of the fact that there was an element of anti-incumbency factor alive during the parliamentary elections 2024 against the ruling DMK. But the lack of understanding of the ground realities by the BJP and the defiance of Palanisamy to dare the challenge thrown up by the BJP closed the gates of negotiations between the two. In the process they may have lost over 15 parliamentary constituencies given the fact that AIADMK and BJP has come second in 28 and 11 constituencies respectively.
Though this may be said in post-poll analysis, yet it cannot be dismissed that the decision of Palanisamy to keep away from BJP is as significant as the remarkable political resistance and ideological strength demonstrated by the DMK. This sums up the grand story of how BJP was denied even a toe-hold in Tamil Nadu.
Prof Ramu Manivannan is the Director of the ‘Multiversity - Centre of Indigenous Knowledge Systems’, Tamil Nadu. He is currently the Special Community Scholar at the Institute of Comparative and Regional Studies (ICRS) at the University of Denver, Colorado, USA.
