The polls started with mild excitement with the BJP’s call of ‘abki baar 400 paar’. The opposition was perceived as weak, divided and unprepared to challenge the ruling party. But as the polls progressed, the excitement increased. The INDIA bloc unexpectedly seemed to pose a major challenge to the NDA.
The opposition was successful in raising issues of unemployment, inflation and social justice. Surprisingly, the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya failed to make an impact; voters were more concerned with issues affecting their daily life. The alliance between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress started posing a serious challenge to the ruling BJP. The chemistry between Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav was palpable. Their rallies gathered huge crowds and successfully conveyed to the masses that the call for “400 paar” was meant to change the Constitution and end reservation. This consolidated their base and attracted dalits and backward classes. The SP, which contested 63 seats, displayed political maturity by fielding non-Yadavs to cause a dent in BJP’s base.
The delayed announcement of Congress candidates in Rae Bareli and Amethi was a shrewd move, as it did not give the BJP a chance to decide its strategy on these two seats. The campaign led by the INDIA bloc remained sombre and focused on the main issues. On the other hand, the BJP campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi failed to focus on national issues and the achievements of his government. The BJP campaign also appeared to be negative; it aimed at distorting the Congress manifesto and launching personal attacks on Rahul and Akhilesh.
As the pattern of voting in the first and second phase of polling sent alarm bells, the BJP campaign became more vicious. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who almost single-handedly carried the campaign, appeared to have lost his balance and started using language unbecoming of a PM. The Hindu-Muslim issue was repeatedly raised to divide voters. The Election Commission remained a mute spectator, raising doubts about its impartiality and independence.
The mainstream media acted as an instrument of the government and failed to give an objective picture. The gap was filled by small, independent YouTube channels that conveyed the ground reality. They were able to highlight the concerns of the common man, such as unemployment and inflation, and the dissatisfaction with government’s efforts to deal with these problems. Even in Modi’s constituency, Varanasi, the voices of criticism were sharp. People of Varanasi also resented the destruction of temples and houses for creating the Kashi Vishwanath corridor.
Even before the polls started, I expected the BJP to lose about 50 seats. As the voting in different phases proceeded, it appeared that the BJP would lose anywhere from 70 to 120 seats, mainly in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka and Maharashtra. This perception was laughed off by most people living in my residential complex, most of them rich and upper middle class. But our maid and milkman said people have voted for the INDIA bloc in large numbers. This was corroborated by many others, like taxi drivers and street vendors. Thus, I see a dichotomy in voting pattern, with the rich on the one side and the poor on the other.
The writer is economist and former director, Giri Institute of Development Studies, Lucknow.