There was an undercurrent of hindutva in Kerala this time. Lord Ram is not a widely worshipped deity in Kerala; Hindus in the state generally revere Lord Krishnan, Lord Murugan, or Lord Ayyappan. However, the narrative that the construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya has led to a Hindu resurgence found reflection in Kerala as well. This was largely due to the RSS's akshata distribution before the temple consecration. Hindus, including those in the Marxist party and CPI, welcomed it, signifying its symbolic importance. It was the single most important issue from national politics influencing Kerala during the recent elections. As a result, the BJP's vote share was seen increasing across the state.
As far as Muslim sections are concerned, there was fear of Modi’s return to power. Consequently, a majority of Muslim votes have once again consolidated in favour of Congress. But we cannot see a similar consolidation of Christian votes in favour of a single party in the state; instead, a portion went to the LDF, a larger slice to the UDF, and a non-negligible portion to the BJP. Compared to the last election, the BJP has earned more Christian votes. One reason for this shift is the growing wedge with the Muslim community. In places where the NDA has a chance, Christian sections have voted for them. This is not primarily due to an affinity for Modi or the BJP, but because of the increasing rift with Muslims. This factor will influence Kerala politics in the coming years.
International issues, especially the Israel-Hamas conflict, also affected Kerala’s political landscape in this election season. If the NDA improves its vote share, one reason is the pro-Hamas stance taken by both LDF and UDF leaders. When LDF leader K.K. Shailaja declared support for the people of Palestine but labelled Hamas as an extremist organisation, she endured significant cyber-attacks. Additionally, when a Malayali woman named Soumya Santhosh was killed in Israel in a Hamas bombing and her body was brought home, the government's apathetic response and the absence of leaders visiting her family were noted by the public. People are aware of these incidents. Just as there are pro-Hamas supporters in Kerala, there are also pro-Israel individuals, and their votes count.
A local but significant factor that is apparent in the current political climate in Kerala is the leakage of LDF votes. Many left sympathisers have decided to vote against the LDF due to strong anti-incumbency sentiments against the Pinarayi Vijayan government in the state. Dissatisfaction has been widespread among people. The extravagance of the state government while the state is reeling under economic pressure added to this discontent. In fact, had the Vijayan government not conducted its state-wide Nava Kerala Sadas, they might have secured more seats.
Vijayan's defence of the physical assault on Congress cadres by DYFI workers during the Nava Kerala Sadas, claiming it was "Jeevan Raksha Pravarthanam (life-saving measures)," did not sit well with LDF sympathisers or the general public. Additionally, DYFI's aggressive tactics and the SFI’s involvement in admission frauds and campus deaths have contributed to the disenchantment.
Additionally, the CPIM leadership's arrogance and the ineffectiveness of ministers in the second Pinarayi government have contributed to this anti-incumbency. Even among Left sympathisers, there is a strong feeling against these issues. As a result, many have voted for the best candidate against the LDF in their respective constituencies, benefiting the UDF significantly.
However, this shift should not be interpreted as a UDF victory but rather an LDF loss. The LDF's choice of candidates was unimpressive in many places. For instance, actor-turned politician M. Mukesh in Kollam and former state finance minister minister Thomas Isaac in Pathanamthitta were not well-received. Isaac might have been more effective in Alappuzha or Kollam [as he comes from the Latin Catholic community which has a significant presence in both these constituencies], but his placement in Pathanamthitta was a misstep. Another example is the choice of an unknown candidate, K.J. Shine, in Ernakulam. One can see that LDF lost that seat before the counting even started.
As told to Nirmal Jovial
The writer is a political analyst and satirist