Reversing a long-held assumption that both India and China keep their nuclear warheads stored away from the launchers, SIPRI, in its latest report released on Monday, indicated the possibility that the two Asian giants may have begun ‘mating’ their nuclear weapons.
SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) is a leading watchdog of weapons that tracks the arsenal and their trade.
On India, the report said: “It has long been assumed that India stores its nuclear warheads separately from its deployed launchers during peacetime. However, the country’s recent moves towards placing missiles in canisters and conducting sea-based deterrence patrols suggest that India could be shifting in the direction of mating some of its warheads with their launchers in peacetime.”
Repeating the assumption for China, the SIPRI report pointed out: “The country’s recent moves towards placing solid-fuelled missiles in silos, conducting sea-based deterrence patrols and, potentially, developing a launch-on-warning (LOW) capability suggest that China might have started mating a small number of its warheads (possibly around 24, corresponding to one missile brigade and one fully loaded ballistic missile submarine) with their launchers.”
Nine countries—the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—are believed to be in the possession of nuclear weapons, together holding on to about 12,121 nuclear weapons, of which 9,585 are considered to be potentially operationally available.
Of these, about 3,904 of these warheads are deployed with operational forces while about 2,100 are kept in a state of high operational alert.
Significantly, the SIPRI report also points to the possibility that China may be changing its declared ‘No First Use’ (NFU) policy on nuclear weapons.
“The dramatic changes in China’s nuclear posture, especially its deployment of quick-launch solid-fuelled missiles in silos and the possible development of a LOW capability, have triggered widespread discussions about long-standing elements of Chinese nuclear doctrine, including its stated nuclear ‘no-first-use’ policy.”
“Since 2022, the US DOD (Department of Defense) has assessed that China is implementing an ‘early warning counterstrike’ strategy—akin to a LOW posture—using ground- and space-based sensors to enable rapid launch of missiles before an adversary can destroy them,” the SIPRI report adds.
The think-tank also estimated India’s nuclear stockpile to have grown to 172 from 164 last year. It said, “These (additional warheads) weapons were assigned to a maturing nuclear triad of aircraft, land-based missiles and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).”
China’s nuclear stockpile is estimated to be around 500, about 90 more than SIPRI’s figure for 2023, while the estimate of Pakistan’s stockpile remained unchanged at 170.
