Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for an hour-long ‘restricted meeting’ in the latter’s Novo-Ogaryovo ‘dacha’ outside Moscow on Monday evening but the lurking shadow of China may have loomed large.
Modi was quoted by Russian news agency TASS after the Indian PM while addressing a meeting with members of Moscow’s Indian community as saying that Russia has stood by India’s side through thick and thin and is India’s true friend.
“The temperature sometimes falls below zero in Russia but the temperature is always above zero in Indian-Russian relations… Russia remains India’s trusted friend in any weather,” TASS quoted him as saying.
In what was a reiteration of the Indian position, an official source said: “India has always called for respecting the UN Charter, including territorial integrity and sovereignty. There is no solution on the battlefield. Dialogue and diplomacy is the way forward.”
“The focus of the visit is the economic agenda (energy, trade, manufacturing, fertilizers), and ‘a solution cannot be found on the battlefield'”, the source added.
But just a day before, Russian missiles had hit residential and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine, including in the cities of Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro and Pokrovsk, killing dozens of civilians, including children and injuring more than 150. In Kyiv, the Okhmatdyt National Children’s Specialized Hospital was also hit.
The attack had drawn strong condemnation from the UN Secretary-General on Tuesday.
The Indian statement is in pursuance of India’s stated policy of strategic autonomy that was best exhibited by adopting the ‘middle way’ on the Ukraine conflict. Neither did India categorically condemn the Russian foray into Ukraine nor did it toe the US-led position of actively supporting the Ukrainians by supplying weapons and logistics.
India’s position may be a forced one where China is the big elephant in the room. If cannot afford to go blatantly against the Russians because of several reasons. Russia would further build close ties in its axis with China threatening Indian sourcing of weapon platforms, systems and spares from Russia. India also wants some sort of leeway with China and for that, Russia is the best bet to convince the Chinese to see and appreciate the Indian position.
Nor can India treat the US-led NATO and the West with impunity because of its volatile relationship with China which spiked since mid-2020 after the border clashes in the Pangong Tso and the more brutal Galwan brawl.
It is therefore a compulsion that India cannot be seen as being partisan to either of the two sides.
Brazil and South Africa, both competitors with India to assume leadership of the ‘Global South’ have a position similar to India but at least in their case, there is no hostility with China.
On the obvious side, besides Ukraine, the focus areas in the Modi-Putin talks would be firstly, on securing affordable energy supplies and keeping inflation/ price rise under check. Last year, more than 80 MMT of crude was imported from Russia.
Secondly, assuring fertilizer supply. Russia remains an important supplier of imported fertilizers. Last year, over 48 lakh tonnes of fertilizers were imported from Russia. The supply of fertilizers is important for India’s farmers, especially during the ongoing Kharif season and the Ravi season starting in October.
Thirdly, a need to secure long-term fuel supplies for the two new upcoming Russian-aided nuclear power plants of 1000 MW each at the Kudankulum Nuclear Power plant that are already in operation.
Interestingly, across the Atlantic, leaders from 38 countries in Washington are meeting for a summit to mark the 75th anniversary of the NATO alliance. On Thursday, the Summit will see a meeting of the NATO Ukraine Council, after which President Biden will host an event with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and nearly two dozen allies and partners, including the United States, who have security agreements with Ukraine.